The Moscow Exchange index will fluctuate between 3450-3500 points


Market the day before

Negative dynamics prevailed. The growth leaders were the shares of VSMPO-Avisma (VSMO 26,020, + 3.67%). The list of outsiders included shares of Rosseti (RSTI 1.5074, -3.82%). The USD / RUB pair was trading in the 75-76 range.

Market and company news

The Ministry of Finance canceled the OFZ auction. The market situation is unfavorable for the placement of government bonds. The government bond price index is at its lowest for the year. The yield on ten-year OFZs reached 7.3%. The main reason for this was the outflow of non-residents.

The Ministry of Finance, in our opinion, has chosen the right tactics. Giving a large premium to the market now makes no sense, and there is no need for urgent borrowing. The demand for OFZs will recover when inflation stops growing and the ruble exchange rate stabilizes. The USD / RUB pair has reached the upper border of a wide sideways corridor, which it has been in since the end of last year.

An additional reason for the weakening of the ruble is the correction of the oil price, due to fears of an oversupply. Oil quotes may stabilize after the publication of data on US reserves. Exit of the USD / RUB pair upward from the corridor 73-76 can lead to a rebound, so the bond market will be in tension in the coming days.

Trading Ideas

MTS (MTSS 316.70, -0.83%), spec. purchase, purpose: 335 rubles. The carrier’s stock acts as a defensive tool in the event of a correction. The technical picture indicates an upward reversal.

Expectations

We expect negative dynamics. The external background is moderately negative. Forecast for the USD / RUB pair: range 75.00-76.00. The Moscow Exchange index will fluctuate between 3450-3500 points.

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