Market on the eve
The correction continued. The growth leaders among the most liquid securities were Polyus shares (PLZL 14,286.5, + 3.06%). Among the outsiders was the usual VTB Bank (VTBR 0.04319, -2.65%). The USD / RUB pair traded in a range of 76.50-77.50.
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The USD / RUB pair reached its highest since November. Foreign policy factors are considered the reason for the weakening of the ruble, however, in our opinion, this is not the case. As a rule, the realization of the corresponding risks is accompanied by a strong movement on a large volume, but this has not yet been observed. The technical picture has a more significant impact on the ruble quotes. Taking it into account, a jump to the 79-80 range is most likely in case of exiting the 73-76 corridor. But the exit from this corridor is likely to be short-lived, and in one or two weeks the ruble will return to its previous values. There are no fundamental factors for the weakening of the ruble in the short term. Inflation jumped to 5.8%. At the same time, the Ministry of Economic Development believes that its peak is passing and in April it will be about 5.5%. The IMF predicts economic growth by 3.8% this year and a decline in inflation to 4.5%. This is the most optimistic forecast.
Sberbank, JSC (SBER 282.49, -2.20%), spec. sale, goal: 278 rubles. The uptrend has not been reversed, but the maximum has not been renewed. A new upward movement is likely after a technical correction from the nearest support level near 280 rubles.
We expect mixed dynamics. Forecast for the USD / RUB pair: range 76.50-78. The Moscow Exchange index will fluctuate between 3450-3500 points. The Ministry of Finance, in our opinion, will not cancel the auction for the placement of state bonds. The growth of OFZ yields amid stable repo rates attracts players. It is possible that the placement will again gather a large volume.
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