Market the day before
Most of the stocks closed in the green. The Moscow Exchange index briefly renewed its maximum, and the RTS reached the psychologically significant level of 1500 points. Raspadskaya remained the growth leader (RASP 249, + 7.72%). Among the outsiders was the FXGD ETF (FXGD 907.8, -2.11%). The USD / RUB pair returned to the range of 75.00-76.00.
Market and company news
The regulator is expected to tighten monetary policy. Most analysts predict a 0.25-0.50 percentage point increase in the rate. In our opinion, these expectations reflect the wishes of the banks rather than the plans of the Central Bank. We believe that there is no urgent need to raise the rate, since now it is higher than in other BRICS countries, and the most important macroeconomic parameters, with the exception of inflation, are much better in Russia. However, inflation has already slowed down to 5.5%, so its peak can be considered passed. The foreign policy background is not deteriorating, exogenous factors are not exerting pressure on the ruble. The rate hike will restrain consumer and industrial demand, as well as lending. However, the market is likely to refrain from an active reaction to this measure by the Central Bank. In our opinion, OFZ prices already include a one-step rate increase.
Sberbank, JSC (SBER 292.37, + 1.08%), spec. purchase, purpose: 305 rubles. Quotes can break through the maximum and conduct a successful assault on the psychologically significant mark of 300 rubles.
We expect multidirectional dynamics. Most likely, the maximum of the Moscow Exchange index will be renewed and its passage to the range of 3600-3650 points. The vector of quotes will depend on the Central Bank’s comments and movements on external markets. The USD / RUB pair, according to our forecasts, will remain within the range of 75.00-76.00.
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