The market will grow, but you shouldn’t forget about vigilance


Yesterday on the western grounds went well enough for the Russian stock market. The American broad-spectrum indices have grown, and at the same time all commodity assets have risen in price. It is on the papers of the raw materials industry that one can bet today.

First of all, oil started to grow again, having gone to the region of $ 67.5 per barrel. The target for the short-term speculative movement of oil, we see the mark of $ 70 per barrel. We still expect Rosneft to respond to expensive oil, whose shares have traded worse than the market in recent weeks and practically did not react to the rise in oil prices.

Gazpromneft may well continue to close the gap with Lukoil and Rosneft. Finally, it would be necessary to continue the rebound of Tatneft, which was simply leaked on information about low dividends. It’s time to forget about it and start living with expectations of a bright future, which is promised by high oil prices and a weak ruble.

Gold is now trading in a rather difficult range of $ 1770-1820 per troy ounce. A breakdown of it upwards, but for now we consider this very scenario as a base one, will provoke an increase in the growth of the precious metal. The drivers of the rise in gold prices have not disappeared, and this is the use of gold as a protection against global inflation and the expectation of a recovery in the world economy, which will cause an increase in demand for jewelry.

Therefore, the shares of Polyus and Polymetal are interesting not only as speculative assets, but also in the medium term as a protection against ruble devaluation.

Today, prices for nickel, platinum and palladium, the main products of Norilsk Nickel, continue to rise.

I’d like to take the papers of ferrous metallurgists, but so far our fears are stronger than greed. It is better to wait anyway with the decision on the sector’s securities until the FAS clarifies the volume of claims against metallurgists. There are fears that the authorities will want to seriously replenish the budget with “iron” dollars.

The ruble paired with the dollar on the low-liquid Forex market yesterday traded in the area of ​​75. Today we are waiting for the continuation of trading around this level, perhaps with a tendency to a slight weakening of the ruble.

I would also like to warn about vigilance: between the holidays the market will be low-liquid, therefore, strong movements in quotations of individual securities cannot be ruled out.

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