Yesterday, the Russian stock market managed not only to rewrite the historical maximum, but also to close the day near a new record, above the 3600 point mark. The growth of the market could have been large, if not for the falling oil, which dragged the oil industry down.
This morning the external situation is positive: American futures are growing by 0.2%, oil rebounds by a percentage, trading again above $ 65 per barrel. So the opening awaits us with growth with the next update of historical highs.
But it is too early to talk about any powerful upward impulse. Firstly, the Moscow Exchange Index needs to close above 3620 points, which will open a technical road to the area of 3670 points. Secondly, buying will not be facilitated by the approaching long weekend, on the eve of which many traders may well begin to cut their longs.
Today we expect that Rosneft, which has been heavily oversold in recent days, will start a rebound. We are positively looking at Norilsk Nickel, which will be driven by a 1.5% rise in price for nickel. And, of course, where without ferrous metallurgists!
Sberbank is slowly approaching the “round” mark of 300 rubles, near which there may be a slowdown and even a rollback downward. But the breakdown of this level is only a matter of time. The bank receives support from the strengthening of the ruble and the increase in the key rate of the Central Bank. The time of the cut-off of the register for annual dividends is approaching, and Sberbank traditionally quickly closes the dividend gap.
However, we do not recommend getting carried away with buying blue chips on a broad front. America is trading at strong resistance, and the risks of its correction are great. Moreover, there are no special growth drivers for American stocks, with the exception of the ongoing pumping of the global financial system with liquidity. A very good reporting season has already been included in the quotes.
Yesterday, there was a demand for shares in the power sector. It seems that some investors have started looking for new ideas in the “second tier”, and power engineering specialists get an advantage with a strong ruble.
However, the upward momentum of the ruble began to fade. The dollar-ruble pair, despite the strong support for the tax period, cannot gain a foothold below 75. Tomorrow, with the payment of income tax, this support will also end, after which, traditionally, at the end of the month, we should expect the Russian currency to weaken.
There are no new growth drivers for the ruble, and they are unlikely to appear in the foreseeable future. Therefore, medium-term investors should look for a moment to buy the dollar against the ruble or assets that benefit from the devaluation of the Russian currency.
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