The likelihood of continued growth of the euro / dollar pair is high


On Wednesday, May 19, by the end of the day, the euro fell by 0.43% to 1.2170. Market volatility was observed throughout the day. An attempt with growth in buyers failed due to the minutes of the April Fed meeting on monetary policy. Market participants were surprised that some committee members said that in the event of a rapid economic recovery, it may be appropriate at some point to discuss a plan to correct the rate of asset purchases. The euro fell to 1.2160. The fall stopped at 67 degrees.

Scheduled statistics (GMT + 3)

  • At 11:00, the eurozone will announce a change in the balance of payments for March.
  • At 13:00 Britain is to publish the balance of industrial orders for the Confederation of British Industrialists for May.
  • At 15:30, Canada is to release its April New Home Price Index. The USA will present the manufacturing index of the Fed-Philadelphia for May and will announce a change in the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits.
  • At 17:00 the US is to publish the April Leading Indicators Index.

Current situation

At the time of this writing, the euro is worth 1.2196. Amid growing crosses with the euro, buyers are trying to recover yesterday’s losses. It is difficult to say whether it will succeed or not, since yesterday the trend line (3) did not resist and the price closed below the balance line (sma55). Today they are resistance.

Major currencies are trading in positive territory. The first two lines are occupied by “Australian” (+ 0.35%) and “New Zealander” (+ 0.33%). The euro gained 0.16% against Wednesday’s close.

The news background for the euro and the dollar is poor today. All attention to the dynamics of the yield on US 10-year bonds (US10Y). Now it is 1,668%. Grew after the publication of the US Federal Reserve Protocol.

The price pattern on the hourly TF is controversial. If within 3-5 hours the yield does not rise above 1.68%, then it will decline to 1.62%, which will put pressure on the American. This is the moment that the buyers of the euro will catch.

In the euro / dollar pair, the level of 1.2205 is a resistance. If by some miracle it is possible to gain a foothold above the designated level, then a false breakdown of the trend line will be recorded and, with a high degree of probability, the growth will accelerate to 1.2241 (1). A sharp pullback from 1.22 will increase the risks of renewing the 1.2160 minimum.

Summary: after the publication of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting, sellers broke through the trend line and consolidated below sma55. “Australian” and “New Zealander” took the first lines in terms of profitability. Their growth indicates an increased risk appetite. Most of the crosses with the euro are on the side of the “euro bulls”. Since the economic calendar is empty for the single currency, it is highly likely that the pair will continue to recover. Against the backdrop of declining yields on US bonds, we can again consider raising quotations to 1.2240.

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