On Friday, the Moscow Exchange Index managed to add 0.6% and close near a slight resistance of 3400 points. It will be broken this morning. The external background calls for the resumption of purchases: American futures are growing by almost half a percent, oil is storming the $ 60 mark per barrel.
On Friday, the Krasnoyarsk Territory court ruled to recover from the Norilsk Nickel subsidiary 146.2 billion rubles in damage for the fuel bottling in Norilsk last year. Based on this information, the shares of GMK at the moment fell by more than 3%, but by the close of trading, most of the drawdown was bought out. The need to compensate for the damage by Norilsk Nickel was previously recouped by the market, and we believe that these payments are already included in the quotes. Therefore, we continue to look positively at the company’s shares. Today they may look a little better than the market, including due to the continuation of playing out Friday’s negative.
Sberbank should also continue to grow, the mid-term driver of the rise in quotations of which remains excellent reporting for January and the continuing inflow of non-resident funds into Russian shares. Last week, the bank’s shares managed to break the short-term downtrend channel and now have no technical problems for the upward movement.
The situation with the shares of the Moscow Exchange is very incomprehensible – they have been trading sideways for a long time and have not taken part either in the growth of the beginning of the year or in the current one. We believe that the paper, which is one of the most promising on the Russian market, can “shoot” at any moment, recouping the lag behind the market.
Among the oil sector, Lukoil looks the most promising. Be careful here, however. After 5 sessions of continuous growth, oil looks overbought. Quotes are around $ 60 per barrel, which seemed fantastic last year. Long-range oil futures are traded cheaper than the nearest one, which suggests that the market is waiting for a decline in prices.
It is possible that oil will rise in price by another dollar or two, but a correction in the oil market can come at any time. Its target will be the $ 55 per barrel mark.
The dollar-ruble pair ended last week at not very strong support at 74.7. Today it will be taken down. February and March are traditionally months of ruble growth due to Russia’s strong balance of payments. Therefore, unless new political risks or some unforeseen negative emerge, the ruble may well strengthen slightly, or at least remain at current prices. In the meantime, the area 73 acts as a very strong support for the pair. We need very significant reasons to overcome it.
Some alarming moment today is a slight strengthening of the dollar against major world currencies. It seems that all risky assets are growing, but the dollar does not want to fall. This suggests that the correction in the global financial markets may return at any time. Therefore, all purchases should be accompanied by short stops.
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