The forecast for the Moscow Exchange index for today: range 3450-3500


Market the day before

Trading dynamics were mixed. The growth leaders among the most liquid securities were Mechel (MTLR 84.05, + 7.48%). MMK shares (MAGN 54.4, -5.90%) were among the outsiders against the background of the register closing to receive a dividend. The USD / RUB pair was trading near the 74 mark.

Market and company news

The Ministry of Finance will resume buying foreign currency. In March, within the framework of the budgetary rule, they will purchase approximately $ 100 million per day. The market does not react to this news, since the indicated volume will not have a noticeable effect on the course of trading. Overall, the resumption of reserve replenishment looks like a positive signal. We believe that the government will not change the budget rule in the current situation.

The OFZ auction did not attract high demand. Interest in OFZs with a fixed coupon amounted to about 15 billion rubles, securities for 10 billion rubles were sold. The quotes of this issue closed at the lowest level ever. Against the background of Rosstat data on the acceleration of inflation to 4.91%, purchases of OFZ with a fixed coupon are reduced. Most likely, interest in them will return at the end of the first quarter, if inflation drops below the target. We do not see a threat of non-fulfillment of the borrowing plan for the current quarter, and we do not expect an increase in the key rate by the end of March.

The Moscow Exchange (MOEX 159.99, + 0.94%) reported a record inflow of investors. Over the year, the number of private investors increased by almost 5 million, exceeding the inflow for the entire period from 1997 to 2019. We believe that this year the growth of the client base will slow down, but its rate will remain above 2 million.

Trading Ideas

Mail.Ru (MAIL 2,008.4, -1.78, spec. Buy, target: 2,300 rubles. Quotes of the IT giant noticeably lag behind other securities in the sector in the absence of negative fundamental factors.

Expectations

We expect mixed dynamics or correction within 1%. The focus is on US retail sales statistics. Forecast for the USD / RUB pair: range 73.00-74.00. The benchmark for the Moscow Exchange index: the range of 3450-3500 p. Better than the market will be shares of banks and the oil and gas sector.

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