The forecast for the Moscow Exchange index for today: 3350-3400 points


Market the day before

The trading dynamics were multidirectional. The growth leaders among the most liquid securities were shares of Raspadskaya (RASP 164.02, + 3.11%). LUKOIL became an outsider (LKOH 5,590.0, -2.31). The USD / RUB pair dropped to 75.

Market and company news

The IMF has presented a forecast for 2021. The organization expects the Russian economy to grow by 3%. GDP decline in 2020 could be 3.6% (the first estimate will be released on January 28), while the world economy is expected to lose 4.3%. We believe that the IMF forecast reflects conservative expectations of the recovery of the Russian economy, which are realized in the event of strong external shocks and high inflation. In the absence of these factors, the Russian economy is capable of growing by more than 3.5% this year.

OPEC expects a quick recovery in the oil market. According to the organization’s forecast, demand may increase by almost 6 million barrels per day, up to 96 million. Investments in production will also recover, which will cause oil prices to go up. The White House has presented a surprise to the oil market: it is possible that shale development will be effectively banned in some areas, due to which the supply of oil in the United States may decrease by about 150 thousand barrels per day. The freezing of the Keystone XL project with a capacity of 800 thousand barrels per day will lead to an increase in transportation and procurement costs. In our view, the news is short-term positive for energy prices and oil and gas stocks, which corrected the day before.

Trading Ideas

Mail.Ru (MAIL 1 984.0, + 1.23%), spec. purchase, purpose: 950 rubles. Technical factors point to a rebound to the upper border of the descending channel of RUB 2,150.

Expectations

We expect multidirectional dynamics. The course of trading will be influenced by movements on external platforms, where corporate reporting will be recouped. The focus on the local market is the OFZ auction. Forecast for the USD / RUB pair: range 74.00-75.00. The reference point for the Moscow Exchange index: 3350-3400 points.

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