The forecast for the Moscow Exchange index for today: 3250-3300 points


Market the day before

The week began with a rebound. The reason for this was the positive dynamics on external commodity and stock markets. The growth leaders were the shares of Polymetal (POLY 1,755.0, + 7.01%). Detsky Mir was among the outsiders (DSKY 138.6, -1.87%). The USD / RUB pair was trading below 76.

Market and company news

MMK (MAGN 24,520, -2.81%) is to publish its financial results for the fourth quarter and the entire past year. Earlier, the company reported a decrease in iron and steel production by 6.7% and 7.1%, respectively. Sales in volume terms decreased by 5% to 10.76 million tonnes. The consensus forecast assumes that the company’s revenue for the year amounted to 492 billion rubles. with EBITDA 109 billion rubles. and a profit of 42 billion rubles. In our opinion, the main growth drivers have been won back. MMK quotes in February will be at or worse than the market. We focus on the range of 50-55 rubles.

There is a rally in silver prices. Quotes of other metals are also growing. It is possible that there is a speculative bullish play based not on fundamental factors, but on the desire to make quick profits or even on deliberate market manipulation. If regulators intervene, a large-scale correction will be able to cover not only the silver market. In our opinion, investors should be cautious about investing in silver producer stocks and metal funds, in particular placing tight stops when entering long uncovered positions.

Trading Ideas

Severstal (CHMF 1,278.0, + 1.20%), spec. purchase, purpose: 1 350 rubles. From a technical point of view, a rebound to the resistance level near 1,370 rubles is likely. Financial reporting may become a growth driver.

Expectations

We expect multidirectional dynamics. Forecast for the USD / RUB pair: range 75.00-76.00. The reference point for the Moscow Exchange index: 3250-3300 points.

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