Yesterday, the Russian stock market unexpectedly rose strongly, adding almost 1.4% on the Moscow Exchange Index. The oil and gas sector has become the engine of growth.
Thus, Rosneft soared by 3.3%. Earlier, we have repeatedly noted that paper lags far behind the market as a whole, and other oil sector. This gap was closed yesterday. However, we do not recommend joining the movement. There is no certainty that Rosneft will continue to grow.
The safer and more predictable is Gazprom, which grew by 1.8% yesterday. Its competitor NovaTEK added 5.2%. The reason for the growth of securities is high gas prices and the low level of occupancy of European gas storage facilities. We look forward to the continued growth of these securities. Including the mark of 300 rubles will not become a serious obstacle for Gazprom.
The shares of ferrous metallurgy have also grown steadily. But here, too, it is dangerous to make mid-term purchases. The negative pressure on them is exerted not so much by the introduction of export duties as by the unpredictable actions of the Chinese authorities to combat the rise in prices for raw materials. As a result, there are now a lot of speculators in the securities, who gladly drive them by 1.5-2 percent (or even more) per day.
This morning the external background is positive. American futures are growing by about 0.2%, oil costs about $ 75 per barrel. Therefore, we can open up with slight growth, and then we will wait for the OPEC + decision on the production level.
The further dynamics of the Russian stock market largely depends on this. There is no doubt that the expanded cartel will decide to increase production from August, but how much remains a question. It is also possible that oilmen will develop a production plan for several months in advance, possibly by the end of the year.
In any case, the beneficiary of this decision will be Rosneft, which will benefit most from the growth in oil production. But, as we have already noted, the paper has been behaving “wrongly” lately. It is also possible that yesterday’s growth was largely due to the expectations of an increase in the Russian production quota.
We also recommend paying attention to Sberbank and the Moscow Exchange. In recent days, they have somehow been forgotten. Interest in them can return at any time.
The ruble against the dollar continued to weaken yesterday, having lost half a percent in a day and closed above 73. There are no particular growth drivers for the Russian currency, we expect the pair to continue sliding towards 74.
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