The benchmark for the Moscow Exchange index for today: 3300-3400 points


Market the day before

Negative dynamics prevailed. The reason for this was the external background. The Moscow Exchange Index dropped below 3400 points. The growth leaders were Severstal (CHMF 1,345.4, + 3.14%). Outsiders among the most liquid were shares of MMC Norilsk Nickel (GMKN 23,376, -5.92%). The USD / RUB pair dropped to the range of 73.50-74.50.

Market and company news

Norilsk Nickel shares (GMKN 23,376.5, -5.92%) fell to their lowest level since the end of the year. The reason was a series of negative events for the company. We consider the idea of ​​controlling dividends to be excessively speculatively won back, although a revision of the shareholder agreement is not ruled out. The accident at the mine is partly positive news: the decline in production volumes is akin to the OPEC + agreement, as it leads to an increase in metal prices. Obviously, in the coming days, the negative news background will put pressure on the quotes, emotions outweigh the fundamental factors. We are not revising our valuation pending information on a new production plan or dividend policy targets for this year.

VTB Bank (VTBR 0.037495, + 0.04%, target: 0.059 rubles, recommendation: “buy”) plans to increase its profit, which by the end of last year slightly exceeded the consensus forecast. The indicator amounted to 75 billion rubles, and this year the bank expects its growth to 200-250 billion rubles. In our opinion, this is an achievable goal, provided that the economy recovers and inflation does not exceed 5.5%. Economic recovery and low refinancing rates will help reduce the level of overdue debt and write off accrued reserves. The investment division of the group will become an additional driver for improving financial performance.

Trading Ideas

ALROSA (ALRS 99.54, + 1.11%), spec. purchase, target: 105 rubles. An upward movement is forming with a target of RUB 105-106. Stop-out: RUB 95

Expectations

We expect the negative dynamics to continue. Outside markets are showing a drop in all sectors, which may be a harbinger of a new tangible correction. Forecast for the USD / RUB pair: range 73.50-74. The reference point for the Moscow Exchange index: a corridor of 3300-3400 points.

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