The benchmark for the Moscow Exchange index: a range of 3450-3500 points


Market the day before

The trading dynamics were multidirectional. The growth leaders against the background of the publication of financial statements were the shares of PIK Group (PIKK 777.2, + 3.01%). Among the outsiders were Bashneft shares (BANE 1 604, -5.56%). The USD / RUB pair was trading in a range of 74-75.

Market and company news

The ruble rate against the dollar reached 75. There would be nothing remarkable in this, if not for two circumstances. Firstly, the oil price did not show a new noticeable decline and until the publication of statistics on reserves, most likely, it will be near the $ 65 per barrel mark. Secondly, the yield on ruble bonds began to grow again and reached 7.15% on 10-year bonds: foreign players, most likely, are reducing their positions in them. The external background also had a certain impact: there was another sharp collapse of the Turkish lira exchange rate, which also forces international investors to overestimate the risks in the currencies of countries with emerging economies. In the medium term, the foreign exchange market remains calm: the USD / RUB pair did not leave the wide corridor 73–76 and until the end of the month, most likely, will be trading within the specified range.

The benchmark (ETLN 123.18, + 0.51%) will report for 2020 under IFRS. The company’s revenue reached 80 billion rubles, EBITDA may reach 13 billion rubles. The consensus profit forecast is 3.5 billion rubles. It is expected that by the end of the current year, revenue may increase by 15%, to 92 billion rubles. The company approved an additional issue of 88.5 mn shares (30% of the capital), which will help reduce its debt burden, which reached 4.5x EBITDA in the first half of the year.

Trading Ideas

MTS (MTSS 319.90, + 0.79%), spec. purchase, purpose: 335 rubles. Stocks are protective in the event of a correction, the technical picture indicates a reversal upward.

Expectations

According to our expectations, the dynamics will be multidirectional. The external background is calm. Forecast for the USD / RUB pair: a corridor of 74.50-75.50. The reference point for the Moscow Exchange index: the range of 3450-3500 points.

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