The benchmark for the Moscow Exchange index: a range of 3400-3450 points


Market the day before

Negative dynamics prevailed. The growth leaders among the most liquid securities were shares of Ozon (OZON 4 666, + 3.92%): it is possible that investors decided to win back the expectations of the securities being included in the MSCI index in May. Among the outsiders were shares of Alrosa (ALRS 101.16, -3.41%) amid the release of sales data in March. The close in the USD / RUB pair was the highest since mid-November.

Market and company news

Aeroflot (AFLT 66.22, + 0.84%) plans to launch all aircraft by June. Currently, 52 out of 221 aircraft are not used. However, the news has not yet been played out, which is caused, in our opinion, by concerns about the closure of flights with Turkey and a possible increase in the incidence of COVID-19 in Russia. At the same time, we believe that there will be no decline in air traffic. In the second quarter, passenger traffic may grow by 20% qoq, which is already close to the pre-crisis level, and if the borders are opened on all European destinations, the demand may be exuberant.

MMC Norilsk Nickel (GMKN 24 450.5, + 2.20%) is discussing dividends. The total payment per share for the last year may amount to 1,021.22 rubles. The company recently proposed an updated dividend policy with 50-70% free cash flow dividends, the last significant payout ahead of the planned two- to threefold dividend cut amid rising capital expenditures. However, the quotes were supported by other news – about the buyback of about 4% of securities for $ 2 billion, which is about 11% of the publicly traded shares. Buying such a number of securities from the market will lead to an increase in quotations. If the main shareholders do not participate in the buyback, their shares will increase, and the size of the dividend in the future will also increase due to the redemption of treasury shares.

Trading Ideas

Mail.ru (MAIL 1,718.6, -1.43%), spec. purchase, purpose: 2000 rubles. There is no negative news background. Shares are traded near the support level of 1,700 rubles.

Expectations

We expect multidirectional dynamics. Despite the growth of external markets, the week may start with a decline. Forecast for the USD / RUB pair: the corridor 76.50-77.50. The reference point for the Moscow Exchange index: the range of 3400-3450 points.

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