The benchmark for the Moscow Exchange index: a corridor of 3450-3500 points

Market on the eve

Trading dynamics were mixed. The growth leaders among the most liquid securities were RusHydro shares (HYDR 0.8385, + 3.71%). Among the outsiders were TCS Bank shares (TCSG 4,555, -3.20%). The USD / RUB pair for the first time since November 5 rose to the range of 77.00–78.00.

Market and company news

AFK Sistema (AFKS 34.85, + 0.37%) will report for 2020 under IFRS. The corporation’s consolidated revenue is expected to be RUB 707 billion, EBITDA – RUB 249 billion, consensus profit forecast – RUB 9 billion. In 2021, the volume of consolidated revenue may increase within 6%, mainly due to the contribution of MTS. However, in the structure of the holding, the highest growth in percentage terms can be demonstrated by Medsi and other companies; as a result, it is possible that consolidated revenue growth will be better than expected.

The ruble is in the spotlight. Note that the panic is observed not in the foreign exchange market, but exclusively in the media: they try to explain the weakening of the ruble by the influence of geopolitical factors, but this is not confirmed, since on Wednesday all the main currencies of the CIS fell equally against the dollar. The jump in the exchange rate was mainly caused by the technical situation and the reduction in the share of non-residents in OFZs. Demand for these securities at auctions from local players is still high due to the difference in yield and funding rates for the purchase of bonds. The players do not believe in the radical tightening of the Central Bank’s policy and the weakening of the ruble. We expect the USD / RUB pair to return to the 75–76 range in the coming days.

Trading Ideas

Sberbank JSC (SBER 282.49, -2.20%), spec. sale, goal: 278 rubles. The uptrend has not been reversed, but the maximum has not been renewed. A new upward movement is likely after a technical correction from the nearest support level near 280 rubles.


We expect mixed dynamics. Forecast for the USD / RUB pair: range 76.50–78.00. The reference point for the Moscow Exchange index: the corridor 3450-3500 points.

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