Today, Fitch Ratings downgraded Turkey’s sovereign debt rating to junk (all links under the cut). This minor event may be the impetus for the beginning of the struggle for power in Turkey, presidential elections will be held in the summer of 2023. The significance of Turkey in the geopolitics of the region is enormous. The zone of the Bosphorus and Dardanelles, control of flows from the countries of the Middle East, the country is pursuing a strategy of expanding its military-political, economic and cultural influence in countries that can conditionally be included in the project of the so-called “Great Turan”, hidden claims to the Crimea and much more. ..How it will be possible to loosen Turkey and what is fraught with if the NWO continues until the summer of 2023. A military coup is unlikely. After an attempt in 2016, the entire disloyal “military” was literally defeated and imprisoned. “Friend” Recep turned out to be an uncompromising, cunning and strong leader. And the economic achievements of the country, under his presidency since 2014, cause pain for the entire ordinary population of the country. Turkish lira soared over 600% like a parabola (arrow coming to power of Erdogan, course ~2.21), annual plan: Inflation surge after corona CPI Y/Y: +78,%: Trade balance at this exchange rate and inflation ( should have favored Turkish commodities in foreign markets) is negative and there is a strong possibility of further deterioration (monthly plan for closing prices, strong expansion model): Eurobonds issued earlier are falling on the stock exchange and the current yield of US900123CW86 bond maturing in 2024 in USD is 10, 79% : Analysts are concerned about investing in local bonds: “It is difficult for us to invest in Turkish local bonds as inflation is over 50% and economic performance is generally deteriorating. Macroeconomic problems will not be solved with guarantees and new investment vehicles.” Turkish Bond Yield (10-Year Turkey Bond Yield, Quarterly Plan, 3MML): Borrowing tap could be turned off, debt servicing and repayments on current obligations will lead to additional money supply , growth of the lira and inflation. This can be used by opposition forces financed by certain structures in the elections in order to organize riots and release steam from popular indignation. Scenarios: 1. Erdogan will succeed and will continue to be a companion as long as the interests of the Russian Federation and Turkey coincide.2. The kneading of the discontented people against the current policy and against Erdogan. At the right moment, someone will take power into their hands, and here there may be a transformation of Turkey into a provocative machine against the Russian Federation and a turn of discontent from internal problems to an external imaginary enemy. There may be provocations like November 24, 2015 with the downed Su-24 by Turkey, only in the Black Sea and the use of other performers from a neighboring country.3. In the event that the conflict escalates into a civil war, the disintegration of Turkey into a number of states. Turkey has one of the strongest armies in the region + a NATO base on which nuclear warheads were stored. In whose hands the majority of weapons will fall and for what purposes it will be used is an open question. Cart:

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