Stock Markets Continue Santa Claus Rally

Western financial markets opened with growth after celebrating Catholic Christmas. The reason was the signing by Donald Trump of measures to stimulate the American economy in the amount of $ 900 billion.

Moreover, the progress in negotiations on this issue between Democrats and Republicans, and the almost readiness of the document, has already been recouped by the markets many times. And the fact that yesterday we did not see a correction “in fact” is a good signal for continued growth. It seems that investors continue to use any excuse to buy.

The Russian stock market also did not stay away from the holiday mood, adding 0.4% on the Mosbirzhi Index. But the dynamics of blue chips was multidirectional. The oil sector traded in the red, although oil prices were firmly above $ 50 per barrel.

This is understandable: the only driver of oil growth is the weakening of the dollar, but there are much more reasons for its decline, and they can be remembered at any moment. Among them, first of all, it is worth noting a decrease in fuel consumption in Europe as a result of severe restrictions and a reduction in air flights. Aviators will not receive income as a result of the usual increase in population migration for this time of year.

At the same time, investor demand focused on the second echelon, which lagged behind the rally of the “main” market observed since the beginning of November. There was an increased interest in the shares of energy companies, from which high dividends can be expected at the end of the year.

After a slight drawdown in the morning, the shares of steelmakers were bought out, over which there is a risk of imposing export duties on their products in order to stabilize domestic prices. But the growth of world steel prices continues, and now it is the main benchmark for the sector’s securities.

This morning the external background is positive again. American futures are growing by about half a percent, the dollar continues to weaken. Thus, the euro-dollar pair again consolidated above the 1.22 mark, pulling prices for raw materials up.

So we’ll open up in the black. But it is possible that the desire of a number of investors to partially fix their profits before the new year or at least reduce the margin longs will increase. On the other hand, large institutional investors today or tomorrow may try to raise the quotes of many highly liquid shares in a low-liquid market in order to increase the profits of their clients and thus their own rewards.

The ruble has somehow weakly won back yesterday’s global positive. Probably, the demand for foreign currency slightly increased as a result of hedging of ruble positions by investors before a long idle time. In addition, the “Russian” has ceased to receive support from the sale of foreign currency by large exporters during the tax period.

Today it cannot be ruled out that the ruble, together with the dollar, will try to move towards a very strong resistance 73, but we do not see any reasons for breaking it.

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