Stock markets are short-term overbought, the desire to lock in speculative profits is growing


The Russian stock market again performed very powerfully yesterday, having managed to rewrite the historical maximum. One gets the impression that the market has received a fresh portion of good money from somewhere in recent days. However, when approaching the 3880 point mark, where the upper border of the ascending channel passes, a reversal occurred, and the Moscow Exchange Index added only 0.4% at the end of the day.

By the way, the S & P500 also updated its all-time high.

The oil and gas sector looked better than the market yesterday, and Rosneft became the leader in terms of trading volumes. You need to be careful with this paper. Earlier we noted that it looks like some big seller has started up in Rosneft. Now he is not visible at the auction: either he fulfilled his task, or he hid for a while.

Lukoil shares soared by 3.7%, which were traded with dividends yesterday the last day. This is a good sign – this year we saw not so many securities in which there was a strong growth in quotations on the eve of the cutoff of the register for dividends. Such dynamics of the security allows us to expect that the dividend gap will be closed quickly, perhaps within a few weeks, if oil prices continue to grow even slightly.

But so far, there are disagreements within OPEC +. It seems that the cartel has decided to increase production by 0.4 million barrels per day per month from August until the end of the year, but, according to media reports, there is no agreement with the UAE on the starting point of their estimated base for increasing production.

Surely today a compromise will be found, and oil has a good chance of continuing its smooth growth to $ 80 per barrel, perhaps after a small profit taking “in fact” of the event.

The external background is still developing neutral today: almost all exchange-traded assets are traded around yesterday’s close. But the Moscow Exchange Index will open lower as a result of dividend gaps of Lukoil and some other less heavy stocks.

It is unlikely that the markets will experience serious movements before the publication of data on the labor market from the United States. Moreover, they should be read the other way around: the better the data, the stronger the fall in risky assets will be due to an increase in the likelihood of a faster rollback of the US Federal Reserve’s stimulus measures.

It should be noted that the stock markets are overbought for a short time, and the desire to fix speculative profits is great.

Against a generally good background, the ruble looked very weak yesterday, giving the dollar 0.4% of its value. We have already noted that there are practically no growth drivers for the Russian currency, and now it is under increased pressure due to the demand for currency from vacationers who prefer cheaper and better quality foreign resorts to Crimea and the Krasnodar Territory.

So far, the ruble is trading unchanged compared to yesterday’s close, but the trend of the dollar-ruble pair towards 74 is evident.

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