Market the day before
During the trades on May 28, negative dynamics prevailed. However, this did not prevent the Moscow Exchange index from updating its maximum at the beginning of the day. The top performers were Phosagro (PHOR 4 649, + 3.29%). The outsiders were shares of NCSP (NMTP 7.17, -4.08%). The recent IPOs Segezha (SGZH 7.8, -2.50%) and Fix Price (FIXP 598, -2.29%) corrected noticeably. The USD / RUB pair went below 73.50 under the influence of the tax period factor and the rise in the price of Brent above $ 69 per barrel.
Market and company news
May was a good time for investors. With a short break, the growth in the Russian stock market continued for six months. The Moscow Exchange Index added 38%. In this regard, in June, in our opinion, the probability of a sideways transition or a correction stage increased. Internal drivers of growth are weakening. The corporate reporting season is almost over. The dynamics will be highly dependent on the situation on external commodity and stock markets. If the Central Bank decides to raise the key rate, this will provide a short-term growth driver for the quotes of banks and commodity companies. The benchmark for the next month according to the Moscow Exchange index: 3600-3750 points. The forthcoming dividend payments in June are holding back the strengthening of the ruble. Foreign currency purchases by non-residents, according to some sources, are estimated at $ 7 billion. Forecast for the USD / RUB pair for the first summer month: range 72.50-74.
Magnet (MGNT 5 410, + 0.90%), spec. purchase, purpose: 5 800 rubles. Retailer quotes are able to break through the previous maximum of 5,500 rubles, the next resistance will be the level of 5,800 rubles. Investors will continue to play on the news of the purchase of Dixy, as a result of which the consolidated revenue of Magnit will approach the result of X5.
We expect multidirectional dynamics. It is not excluded that the next update of the maximum on the Moscow Exchange index, which will hold the upcoming session approximately within 3700-3750 points. Forecast for the USD / RUB pair: range 73.00-73.50.
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