Stock Market Review for May 28, 2021 – ForTrader.org Financial Magazine


Market on the eve

On May 27, trading dynamics were multidirectional. The Mosbirzhi index has renewed its maximum again. The growth leaders among the most liquid shares were again TCS (TCSG 5 589.8, + 9.65%). Ozon quotes (OZON 3 815, -5.52%) showed dynamics worse than the market. At the same time, at the close of the session, there was a volume of 2.6 million securities (about 10 billion rubles), which is most likely due to the purchases of index funds that track the MSCI Russia indices (the changes took effect on May 27). Earlier, the inflow of funds into the paper was estimated lower (about $ 100 million). It is possible that the positions of funds focused on Russia have grown. A week ago, at the end of the lock-up period, some minority shareholders, on the contrary, were actively selling their Ozon shares. The USD / RUB pair was trading near the 74.50 level.

Market and company news

Gazprom (GAZP 16,022, + 1.09%) will report for the 1st quarter under IFRS. Revenue is expected in the amount of 1.7 trillion rubles. (1.49 trillion rubles according to RAS) with EBITDA at the level of 539 billion rubles. (margin 31%) and net profit in the amount of 223 million rubles. At the end of the year, revenue may amount to 8.3 trillion rubles, which is 32% more than in 2020. The improvement in indicators is due to an increase in sales (in volume and value terms) against the backdrop of the recovery of the hydrocarbon market. Gas production forecast for 2021 has been increased by 11% to 506 billion cubic meters. m. The price of gas in Europe is about $ 330 per 1,000 cubic meters. m, which is almost 60% higher than the target set in the company’s budget. The continued construction of SP-2 and the largest KPEG in Russia in Ust-Luga has a positive impact on the quotes. The medium-term target for Gazprom shares is RUB 320. We foresee an increase in earnings per share to RUB 60. after the implementation of all major projects (after 2024).

Trading Ideas

X5 Group (FIVE 2 194.0, + 2.94%), spec. purchase, purpose: 2,400 rubles. The correction gave way to a rebound at the auction on May 21. We expect consumer stocks to demonstrate positive dynamics in the coming days. Unlike the quotes of Magnit and Lenta, X5 shares have been steadily declining for seven months in the absence of fundamental drivers. X5 will remain the largest player in its segment, long-term target for the retailer’s shares: 3,150 rubles.

Expectations

We expect multidirectional dynamics. The next update of the maximum on the Moscow Exchange index is not ruled out. Forecast for the USD / RUB pair: range: 73.00–74.00. The benchmark for the Moscow Exchange index: the corridor 3700-3750 points.

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