Market the day before
Negative dynamics prevailed. The Moscow Exchange index showed the maximum decline since May. The growth leaders were shares of Alrosa (ALRS 127.55, + 2.37%). Against the background of the register closing, Detsky Mir shares traded worse than the market for dividend (DSKY 142.04, -5.47%). The USD / RUB pair crossed the 75 mark for the first time since May 4.
Market and company news
The ruble exchange rate against the dollar rose above the level of the beginning of the year. However, most market participants still expect the national currency to strengthen this year. The trade surplus is growing slowly on the back of import inflation, but nevertheless remains above $ 10 billion per month. The capital flow balance in the second quarter may turn out to be positive.
Currently, the ruble is under pressure from a seasonal factor, as well as a decline in investor interest in OFZ. Inflation data for June (6.5%) indicate an acceleration in price growth, contrary to expectations. We do not exclude that this will lead to an increase in the key rate by 0.25 or even 0.5 percentage points. in July. For interest in OFZs to return, their yield should be approximately 1.5 percentage points. exceed the inflation rate and repo rates for 10-year securities. As a result, we expect a further decline in their quotations in July. At the same time, the negative dynamics in the OFZ market is held back by the correction in the stock market.
The RTS index dropped to the level of the 50-day average, some players may start fixing positions in blue chips. In the US, over the past few days, there has been a significant outflow of funds from funds. If the correction continues, the demand for foreign exchange assets will increase. In addition, volatility in the currency and stock markets is an additional argument in favor of tightening monetary policy. We believe that the USD / RUB pair in July will be able to stay within the 72–75 range, but a short-term exit from it is possible.
Bashneft, ap (BANEP 1,081, -1.28%), spec. purchase, purpose: 1250 rubles. Over the year, the company’s quotes fell by 40% in the absence of fundamental negative. The last week saw the sale of a large number of shares, which is similar to the closing of the positions of a large player. According to our assumptions, there is a significant rebound in quotes ahead.
Further correction is possible for a wide range of securities. Forecast for the USD / RUB pair: range 73.50-74.50. The benchmark for the Moscow Exchange index is the corridor of 3800–3850 points.
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