Market the day before
The quotes interrupted the ascent. At the beginning of the day, the Mosbirzhi index renewed its maximum, but ended the trading in the red zone. Shares of Surgutneftegaz, ap (SNGSP 48.0, + 2.53%) became the growth leaders amid a weakening ruble. The shares of the Mother and Child Group of Companies (MDMG 818.20, -7.75%) traded below the market. The USD / RUB pair has renewed its two-month high, exceeding 74.80 amid a rapid correction in oil prices.
Market and company news
The focus is on the jump in the ruble against the dollar. The reason for the weakening of the Russian currency was a sharp correction in the oil price. News related to the OPEC + meeting determines the volatility of black gold quotes, however, the reaction of investors in the foreign exchange market, in our opinion, turned out to be too violent: currently a barrel of Brent is trading at about 5.5 thousand rubles, which is the upper limit expected range.
We believe that in the absence of significant news by the end of the week, a rollback of the currency pair to the range of 73-74 is possible. However, this jump will negatively affect demand at OFZ auctions. Today the Ministry of Finance will offer for purchase 10- and 20-year bonds of relatively fresh issues; most likely, like a week ago, there will be little interest in them. We expect the 20-year bond to yield around 7.3%.
The results of the placement and the dynamics of the ruble may be influenced by macro statistics: today inflation data for June should be published, and this is one of the most important factors determining the monetary policy of the regulator. If the CPI does not fall below 6%, the key rate may be raised by 0.25 percentage points in July. In this case, the ruble and OFZ may continue to decline.
Bashneft, ap (BANEP 1115, -0.93%), spec. purchase, purpose: 1250 rubles. Over the year, the company’s quotes fell by 40% in the absence of fundamental negative. The last week saw the sale of a large number of shares. This is similar to the closing of the positions of a major player. We regard the situation as favorable for a significant rebound in quotes.
We expect mixed dynamics. The external background is slightly negative. In the local market, the focus is on inflation data and the OFZ auction. Forecast for the USD / RUB pair: range 73.50-74.50. The benchmark for the index of the Moscow Exchange: a corridor of 3850–3900 points.
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