Stock Market Review for July 21, 2021 – ForTrader.org Financial Magazine


Market the day before

The trading dynamics were multidirectional. The American market bounced back after a strong fall, but the Moscow Exchange index closed near 3700 points. The growth leaders were shares of Kazanorgsintez (KZOSP 32.21, + 4.48%). The shares of Lenzolota looked worse than the market (LNZL 14590, -19.79%). The USD / RUB pair was trading in a range of 74-75.

Market and company news

Quotations lack growth drivers. The Russian stock market did not show a decisive rebound following the American grounds. The price of black gold is approaching $ 70 per barrel, but this does not form a sufficient impetus for a breakthrough in quotations: even some securities of the oil and gas sector ended the trading session in the red.

However, this is a normal situation for the market: the fall, as a rule, is sharp, and the recovery takes a longer time. At the same time, external drivers of growth are clearly not enough for investors.

The Ministry of Finance will offer at the auction only one paper – the relatively recently issued 10-year OFZ-PD. Demand is likely to be weak. At the same time, news from the meeting of the Bank of Russia will be played back on Friday; as a result, the movement of quotations on the OFZ market can be quite significant. According to the expectations of the players, the key rate will be increased immediately by 1 pp, and a second increase in September is not excluded.

If the release issued following the meeting of the regulator contains indications of such a possibility, then the quotations of OFZ with a fixed coupon will fall due to an increase in yields to 0.5 pp.

Trading Ideas

VTB Bank, JSC (VTBR 0.046215, + 0.47%), purchase, target: 0.051 rubles. We expect the securities to start closing the dividend gap. The rate hike does not threaten the achievement of previous annual profit targets.

Expectations

We expect mixed dynamics. The technical picture gives a chance for a rebound: the RTS index is close to the 100-day moving average. But to a large extent, players will be guided by the dynamics of external sites. Forecast for the Moscow Exchange Index: a range of 3680–3720 points. Guideline for the USD / RUB pair: 74-75.

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