Market the day before
During the first trading in July 2021, mixed dynamics was observed on domestic exchanges. The leaders of growth against the backdrop of the upcoming IPO of EMC were the shares of Mother and Child (MDMG 803.9, + 6.48%). OGK-2 (OGKB 0.735, -6.36%) became outsiders after the register was closed to receive dividends. The USD / RUB pair climbed above 73, although oil surpassed the $ 76 mark.
Market and company news
Oil and gas stocks are hitting highs. NOVATEK, LUKOIL and Rosneft renew their price peaks as oil and gas prices continue to rise. This suggests a significant improvement in the sector’s financial performance in the second quarter. We forecast an increase in revenues from oil supplies within 20-25%, and from gas sales – up to 30%. Against this backdrop, LUKOIL and NOVATEK are likely to pay an interim dividend this year.
The participants in the OPEC + deal continue to keep the markets in suspense. The ministerial meeting was postponed to 2 July. Rumor has it that production limits will be increased by 2 million barrels per day. In this regard, the volatility of oil prices has increased. But no matter what decision the organization of exporting countries makes, in our opinion, oil in July will remain in the range of $ 70-80. At the same time, the parties to the OPEC + agreement in the second half of the year may start to increase production, otherwise large volumes of shale oil from the United States will enter the market.
Gazprom (GAZP 283.99, + 0.78%), spec. purchase, nearest goal: 300 rubles. The growth drivers are technical factors. They make it possible to storm the local maximum. News also contributes positively. Gas price in Europe approached $ 400 per thousand cubic meters. m due to high consumption and reduced stocks. The average selling price for the first quarter was almost 30% higher than the forecast.
We expect mixed dynamics. The external background is positive. Oil and gas shares and banks will continue to rise in price. In the shares of the metallurgical sector, a sharp rebound is likely. Forecast for the USD / RUB pair: range 72.50-73.00. The reference point for the Moscow Exchange index: 3 830-3870 points.
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