Stock Market Review for July 19, 2021 – ForTrader.org Financial Magazine


Market the day before

The week ended with a decline. The Moscow Exchange Index dropped below 3800 points. The rebound of Lenzolota paper continued (LNZL 16630, + 23.74%). Transneft shares (TRNFP 167600, -5.31%) became the leaders of the decline on the background of the closing of the register for dividend. The USD / RUB pair was trading in a range of 74-75.

Market and company news

Quotes are under pressure from negative investor sentiment. In the US, the stock market declined on fears of an acceleration in the CPI and inflationary expectations rising to a maximum since 2008. The same sentiment was noted on the Moscow Stock Exchange.

In all likelihood, inflation in the Russian Federation this year will not reach double-digit values, but the rate of price growth continues to accelerate. According to the Bank of Russia, the inflation peak has not been passed. It is obvious that on Friday the key rate will be seriously raised, possibly up to 6.5% per annum. At the same time, against the background of a sharp acceleration of inflation in the United States, the yield of both 2% Eurobonds and 7% 5-year ruble bonds does not outstrip inflation.

Thus, if we ignore the short-term speculative reaction, we do not expect a significant strengthening of the ruble, nor an inflow of funds into classical OFZs after the rate hike, which has actually already been half-won back.

As a result, demand will grow only for inflationary OFZs. The ruble exchange rate will largely be determined by the liquidity situation, which depends on various factors, including inflationary expectations.

Trading Ideas

VTB Bank, JSC (VTBR 0.047250, + 0.13%), purchase, target: 0.051 rubles. We expect the securities to start closing the dividend gap. The increase in the key rate does not threaten the achievement of the previous targets for annual profit.

Expectations

We do not exclude the continuation of the correction. The external background is negative due to the increase in the incidence of COVID-19 in the United States. Markets will continue to win back the reporting of American companies and makrostatistiki. Forecast for the Moscow Exchange Index: a range of 3750–3800 points. Guideline for the USD / RUB pair: 74-75.

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