Against the backdrop of an abnormally cold winter in Europe, gas reserves in European underground storage facilities continue to decline – by March 25, 65.5 billion cubic meters of them were withdrawn. m. To replenish reserves this summer, 57% more gas will be needed than last year. Gazprom has already increased gas exports to non-CIS countries by 28.3% from January 1 to March 15, 2021. Despite this, the stock quotes have not yet been able to overcome the resistance of 230 rubles.
When will Gazprom’s shares start to rise? Sergey Kaufman, an analyst at FINAM Group, answered the question of Fortrader magazine.
– In our opinion, the main obstacle to the growth of Gazprom shares are non-market factors associated with possible sanctions and the general level of geopolitical tensions.
Gazprom shares do look attractive in an environment where gas prices in Europe are stably above $ 220 per thousand cubic meters, and gas storage facilities are about 31% full. However, investors are in no hurry to make purchases, as There are regular reports of impending sanctions against the Nord Stream 2 project by the United States, as well as possible sanctions against Russia as a whole. At the same time, it is unlikely that the sanctions against SP-2 will be really significant for Gazprom, since It is already extremely difficult to stop the construction of this project, and it is likely that the introduction of insignificant measures could trigger the growth of shares, since it will significantly reduce the level of uncertainty. But significant sanctions against Russia as a whole (for example, disconnecting from SWIFT, which has been so much talked about in recent weeks) can lead to an outflow of funds from non-residents from the entire Russian market, which is the main danger at the moment.