The Russian stock market showed inexplicable weakness yesterday, ending the day with practically no changes in the Moscow Exchange Index. Traders ignored both the oil soaring by 3% and the growth of American futures, and then the indices. This is not a very good signal that we are not ready for growth.
Today, the external background is again favorable to purchases: American futures are growing by 0.3%, oil went up to 68.5 dollars per barrel. If today we ignore the external positive, then it looks like we need to think about reducing medium-term positions and prepare for the summer correction.
This scenario is also hinted at by the resumed growth of Gazprom yesterday – very often this security goes up precisely at the end of the uptrend.
Sberbank closed with a slight decline, which also indicates the weakness of buyers. Including non-residents.
In the meantime, the increased demand both in our country and in the West is observed for high-tech papers. In recent months, they have sagged, which is explained by the fixation of “coronavirus profits” on them and the flow of capital into traditional stocks. But at the same time, no one canceled high profits and the prospects for the development of high-tech companies. It is possible that the growth of companies in the sector will continue. Therefore, keeping Yandex in portfolios is not a bad idea.
But still, we expect that today the stock market will open with growth, including the start to win back the increased oil Lukoil and Rosneft. But we recommend taking them only speculatively. Most likely, in the near future, oil will continue to grow, including going above $ 70 per barrel. But the upward movement will not be very strong and will be accompanied by periodic drawdowns.
This morning, gold has dropped by a third of a percent. This is a normal correction due to profit taking and a good time to buy additional gold miners’ shares.
The ruble closed yesterday practically unchanged, and this morning it is strengthening against the dollar by 0.3%. We do not recommend joining this movement, it may not receive a continuation today during the day. The dollar-ruble pair will hardly manage to gain a foothold below 73. Therefore, it is better to look for a moment to speculatively buy the dollar against the ruble.
Most likely, we will see the weakening of the Russian currency at the end of this week, when the ruble will lose support from the tax period.
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