American investors bought back Monday’s drawdown almost completely yesterday. There was no positive news on the market yesterday, but there was none during the previous sales. So the fall for no reason was replaced by the same causeless rebound.
We looked much weaker, adding only 0.3% on the Moscow Exchange Index – 5 times less than the American indices. The weakness of the Russian stock market is due to the end of the dividend period, the approaching Duma elections and, perhaps most importantly, the fall in oil, through the prism of which Western investors look at the Russian economy and the stock market.
Today the external background looks neutral: American futures are trading near yesterday’s close, but oil is falling again, losing 0.5%, and not daring to go above $ 70 per barrel. In this situation, we will open not far from the 3700 point mark, where we closed yesterday.
There are no own ideas on the market, so in the future we will follow the external background. I would like to warn against buying stocks on a broad front: with a high probability, we will see at least one more dip in quotations.
We have the most pessimistic short-term outlook on the securities of the oil sector, which looked weak even with expensive oil. Judging by the dynamics of oil, a scenario of its decline closer to $ 60 per barrel is possible. But this does not exclude reaching $ 80 a barrel later, by the end of the year.
We are still waiting for the rise in the shares of ferrous metallurgy. The driver of their growth in the coming days may be the reporting of MMK and NLMK, and strong drawdowns will be bought out due to the high dividend yield of shares of the companies in the sector. In particular, we expect that the same MMK and NLMK will pay about 4% of the dividend yield at the end of the quarter.
Norilsk Nickel managed to close yesterday above the resistance of 25 thousand rubles. It seems that this should provoke a further rise, but this morning nickel is losing 1.7% of its value, and the paper itself is very sensitive to the actions of non-residents.
The ruble in the morning session is growing by 0.1%. Most likely, until the Central Bank decides on the rate and a calm external background, the dollar-ruble pair will remain in a very narrow sideways range of 74-74.6. But if Elvira Nabiullina does not support the ruble at her press conference, then the pair will close the week above the resistance of 74.6, which will pave the way for movement to the area of 76.
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