The Russian stock market had a strong session yesterday, updating its all-time high and adding 1.2% at the end of the day. The growth was large, but the external background began to deteriorate, and the proximity of technical resistance on the Moscow Exchange Index in the area of 2790 points forced speculators to partially fix their profits.
Oil firmly consolidated above $ 70 a barrel, and it is not surprising that the leaders of the growth were the shares of oil companies, which lagged far behind the growth of the general market in May. Today oil costs $ 70.7 in the morning. It is possible that during the day it will add up to one percent in price. So the oil industry has every reason to grow a little more.
We do not count on a strong movement of oil, it is unlikely that it will manage to go above 73 dollars in the next week.
Among other significant events, it is worth noting a good rebound in ferrous metallurgy. Sector securities have recently sagged – first at the initiation of antimonopoly investigation by the FAS, then at the statement of the Chinese authorities about the desire to fight the rise in raw materials prices, on Monday – on the intention of our authorities to withdraw 100 billion rubles of “excess profits” from metallurgists.
But at the same time, world steel prices remain unprecedentedly high, and initiatives that are negative for companies in the sector are not being developed. The technical overbought on steelmakers’ shares has been lifted, and they can start a new wave of growth.
Today the external background is developing in a neutral way. American futures are trading near zero, oil is growing, but industrial and precious metals are falling. We will open, most likely, near the previous close, but Russian investors are optimistic, and they will look for an excuse to drive the market up.
Resistance for the Moscow Exchange Index is the area of 3790 points – there is the upper border of the ascending channel. It is unlikely that it will be possible to pierce it, but a puncture is quite possible. However, there are no grounds for this so far.
This morning, gold has gone under the $ 1,900 mark. So far, we see no reason to change the incipient upward movement in gold.
The ruble paired with the dollar lost 0.4% yesterday. Even the soaring oil did not provoke the ruble bulls to attack the 73 mark. This is an alarming fact that speaks of the potential weakness of the Russian currency. It looks like it’s worth looking for a moment to open medium-term positions against the ruble.
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