Rosneft shares gained 1.07% in the last trading session. The closing price was 541.95 rubles. The paper traded better than the market. Trading volume amounted to 2.76 billion rubles.
On Monday, at the beginning of trading, the quotes held the support area of 534-538. Then the price again approached the sellers’ control zone 548–552, but failed to pass it again. Taking into account the negative external background, today I expect a decline to at least the area of 534-538.
As long as the price is above the support line 534, the base scenario remains an upward movement towards medium-term growth targets at around 590-595. The passage of the 552 line on the third attempt looks more likely, due to this one important obstacle will remain in the way in the face of the weekly resistance level 560.
What to do? For open medium-term long positions, the target for selling is in the range of 590-595. As long as the securities are above the buy zone 522-528, the long is relevant. If the level of 522 is broken downwards, the shares may fulfill the last decline targets in the area of 503-507.
On the 4-hour chart, the RSI curve is in the neutral zone at 59 points. There is no divergence from the chart on the RSI and MACD indicators. Technical indicators are conducive to continued growth, but first of all we look at the development of support and resistance levels: 552 and 534.
- Resistances: 548/552/560
- Supports: 538/534/528
The external background was negative in the morning. S&P 500 index futures are down 0.5%. Asian indices are trading in the red. Brent crude is down 0.7%. The opening of trades in Rosneft securities will be held below the level of Monday’s close.
Rosneft is the first oil company to return to levels seen before the February-March sale. Since the lows of November 2020, Rosneft quotes have risen by 69%.
The formed movement achieved medium-term growth targets in the 548-560 area. There is still a global growth target of 620-650.
If the weekly candle rises above 538, then growth is expected to resume towards the indicated targets.
If the weekly candlestick is below the level of 535, this indicates a possible continuation of the correction to the level of weekly support 510, then the uptrend will continue (one cannot ignore the breakdown of 535 downward).
In a long-term picture, you need to look at the close of the weekly candle at the end of Friday’s trading.
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