Review of the dollar, euro, pound, yen, qiwi and gold prices for May 5, 2021


The European currency is showing a slight increase against the US dollar during today’s Asian session, trying to recover from the decline the day before, which led to the renewal of local lows since April 22. The American currency retains its previous growth momentum, which was formed at the end of last week, receiving additional support after the speech of the US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Recall that Yellen did not rule out the possibility of an early rate hike in order to avoid overheating the American economy, which is demonstrating impressive growth rates. Investors are also optimistic about news of the gradual reopening of the US states against the backdrop of an active vaccination campaign and a general stabilization of the epidemiological situation. The focus of market participants today is the publication of statistics on business activity in the services sector and the production of the eurozone from Markit. In addition, a speech by the representative of the European Central Bank Philip Lane is expected, where, possibly, hints on tightening monetary policy in the region will be given.


The British pound is trading slightly higher against the US currency in today’s morning session, again actively testing the 1.3900 mark for a breakout. Despite the rather aggressive strengthening of the dollar since the end of last trading week, the pound’s position remains quite strong, which is facilitated by a more stable epidemiological situation in the UK compared to the EU, as well as optimistic macroeconomic statistics. For example, on the eve of investors reacted positively to the further growth of the PMI in the manufacturing sector from Markit in April from 60.7 to 60.9 points, which turned out to be better than the neutral forecasts of analysts. The Bank of England meeting on the interest rate will be held tomorrow, at which, most likely, a unanimous decision will be made to leave the monetary policy parameters unchanged, but the comments of the officials will still be very important.


The New Zealand dollar is actively growing in tandem with the American currency in the trading of this morning session, recovering from an equally active decline the day before, thanks to which the pair renewed its local lows since April 14. A noticeable support for the instrument is provided by the report on the labor market of New Zealand published yesterday. Thus, the indicator of changes in the employment rate in Q1 2021 maintained the same growth rates by 0.6% QoQ, despite the forecasts of a slowdown to + 0.2% QoQ. The unemployment rate for the same period fell from 4.9% to 4.7%, which also turned out to be better than the market’s neutral forecasts. The share of the labor force in the total population in the 1st quarter of 2021 increased from 70.2% to 70.4%, which is 0.1% ahead of analysts’ expectations.


The US dollar is showing mixed performance against the Japanese yen in today’s Asian session, consolidating around 109.30. The day before, the American currency showed moderate growth, which was due to the overall positive market sentiment regarding the pace of recovery of the US economy after the coronavirus crisis. The buying sentiment was also supported by the speech of the US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who spoke in favor of a rate hike soon in order to reduce the risks of overheating in the economy, as well as slow down the rapidly growing inflation. It is worth noting that on Tuesday, Japanese sites were closed to celebrate Children’s Day, so at the moment, not all investors have returned to the market. Tomorrow is expected to publish the final minutes of the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Japan.


Gold prices are consolidating during today’s morning trading session, retreating from local highs since February 25 the day before. Another wave of sales of the instrument was associated with the strengthening of the American currency in response to statements by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in favor of raising interest rates. However, the chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, who spoke earlier, remained true to himself, saying that the national economy is demonstrating steady growth rates, but it is still somewhat premature to talk about a full-fledged exit from the crisis. Gold was also supported by the declining yield on Treasury bonds.

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