Review of the dollar, euro, pound, yen, qiwi and gold prices for March 9, 2021


Today, during the Asian session, the EUR / USD pair is growing as part of the correction, recovering after a confident “bearish” rally, which led to the renewal of local minimums from November 24, 2020. The current growth of the single currency is still conditioned only by technical factors, while the fundamental picture on the market changes insignificantly. Macroeconomic data from Germany released on Monday put additional pressure on the instrument. Industrial production declined 2.5% mom in January after rising 1.9% mom last month. Analysts had expected the index to rise by 0.2% m / m. On an annualized basis, production rates declined by 3.9% YoY after rising 1.0% YoY in the previous period. The markets were somewhat supported only by the indicator of investor confidence for March from Sentix, which rose from -0.2 to 5 points against the forecast of +1.9 points. On Tuesday, European investors are focusing on the updated data on the dynamics of GDP in the euro area for the fourth quarter of 2020.


Today during the Asian session, the GBP / USD pair is growing slightly, developing the “bullish” signal that had formed the day before. Now the activity of buyers in the market has not changed the balance of power for the instrument, even in the short term, but new drivers are expected soon. The US dollar is in demand after the publication of a strong report on the US labor market, as well as pending the approval of a program to support the national economy in the amount of $ 1.9 trillion. The bill passed a vote in the Senate, having undergone a number of amendments. Now he will be returned to the House of Representatives, after which he will go for signature to US President Joe Biden, who hopes to complete the process this week. In turn, on Tuesday, the pound was supported by statistics on the dynamics of retail sales from the Confederation of British Industrialists. In February, the indicator accelerated from + 7.1% y / y to + 9.5% y / y, beating the forecasts of + 7.0% y / y.


Today, during the Asian session, the NZD / USD pair is declining, developing a bearish trend in the short term and trading near local lows since mid-January 2021. Demand for commodity assets remains moderate, especially against the backdrop of positive macroeconomic signals from the US economy and the readiness of congressmen to approve a new package of large-scale support measures. The New Zealand dollar was optimistic about the data set from China on the dynamics of imports and exports, which indicates a further recovery in trade activity around the world. However, last week, the PRC set a GDP growth target of + 6%, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of + 8%. Macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand put additional pressure on the instrument on Tuesday. There, sales volumes in the industrial sector in the fourth quarter of 2020 slowed down from + 17.3% q / q to + 0.5% q / q. The index of business optimism from the RBNZ in March fell sharply from 7 to 0 points.


Today during the Asian session, the USD / JPY pair is steadily growing, developing a powerful bullish rally since February 23 and renewing record highs since June 2020. The American currency is in strong demand against the backdrop of positive macroeconomic publications from the United States, as well as anticipating a new impetus for the recovery of the American economy after the approval of the stimulus bill in the amount of $ 1.9 trillion. The yen, in turn, is retreating after the release of statistics from Japan. Thus, the revised data reflected a slowdown in GDP for the fourth quarter of 2020 from + 3% q / q to + 2.8% q / q. In annual terms, the growth rate of the Japanese economy was revised from + 12.7% y / y to + 11.7% y / y.


Today, during the Asian session, gold prices are rising as part of a correction, recovering from another decline the day before, which led to the renewal of record lows since June 2020. The reason for the next sales at the beginning of the week was the strong position of the US currency and the yield on American securities, which remains quite high and attractive. Gold is supported only by expectations of the final approval of a new package of measures to support the US economy in the amount of $ 1.9 trillion, which is expected to lead to a jump in inflationary pressures within the country.

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