Review of the dollar, euro, pound, yen, qiwi and gold prices for June 11, 2021


The European currency is strengthening against the US dollar at the end of the trading week, approaching the level of 1.2200. Investors are focusing on today’s G7 meeting, which was somewhat marred by renewed EU-UK disagreements over the Northern Ireland border. In addition, participants in the trades are discussing the data on inflation in the US, published the day before, as well as the results of the next meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB). As expected, the European regulator kept the current parameters of monetary policy unchanged, fearing that any actions aimed at tightening it would undermine the already fragile recovery from the coronavirus crisis. At the same time, the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde noted that inflationary pressure is likely to remain within reasonable limits, anticipating the speculation of market participants, similar to what can now be observed around the US Federal Reserve. An additional optimistic signal from the European regulator was the increase in forecasts for economic growth in the region from 4% to 4.6% in 2021.


The British pound shows mixed trading dynamics against the US currency in the Asian session, consolidating after the active growth the day before, which allowed the instrument to retreat from its local minimums. At the same time, the US dollar on Thursday received support from stronger inflation data. Thus, the consumer price index rose by 0.6% mom in May after increasing by 0.8% mom in April. Analysts’ forecasts assumed a slowdown in the indicator to + 0.4% m / m. In annual terms, inflation accelerated from + 4.2% y / y to + 5% y / y, which also turned out to be higher than analysts’ forecasts at + 4.7% y / y. In addition to the G7 summit, the focus of investors’ attention today is a block of macroeconomic statistics from the UK on the dynamics of industrial production and GDP in April.


The New Zealand dollar has been flat against the US currency during the Asian session, holding close to 0.7200. Investors are looking forward to discussing the newly flaring disagreements between the UK and the EU over the Brexit transition arrangements at the G7 Summit. Macroeconomic statistics from the US on consumer inflation published yesterday, although it turned out to be better than analysts’ forecasts, failed to significantly affect the dynamics of the American currency. Nevertheless, the market, and with it the US Federal Reserve, received a new signal, indicating a rapid rise in prices. Now bidders are awaiting the meeting of the American regulator, hoping to hear a more intelligible position on the gradual tightening of monetary policy. Meanwhile, the macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand provides moderate support to the instrument today. Thus, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in May rose from 58.4 to 58.6 points, which turned out to be significantly better than market expectations at 54.4 points.


The US dollar shows marginally gains against the Japanese yen in Asian trading, recovering from a moderate decline the day before. Yesterday’s macroeconomic statistics from the US only briefly provided moderate support to the US currency, after which investors returned to corrective sales. In addition to inflation data, it should be noted that the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week of June 4 fell from 385 thousand to 376 thousand, which turned out to be slightly worse than market expectations of a decrease to 370 thousand. On May 28, it fell sharply from 3.757 million to 3.499 million, while traders were expecting a decline to only 3.602 million.


Gold prices are consolidating around 1900.00 during the Asian trading session. The day before, the instrument showed sharp and multidirectional dynamics, reacting negatively to the increase in the yield of US Treasuries and the emergence of strong macroeconomic statistics from the US on consumer inflation. Closer to the close of the daytime session, the quotes managed to fully recover, however, they met strong resistance at the level of 1900.00. Today, traders expect new drivers to emerge after the European G7 summit.

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