Review of the dollar, euro, pound, yen, qiwi and gold prices for July 2, 2021


The European currency is slightly declining against the US dollar during the Asian session, trading near the local lows since April 6, updated the day before. The American currency is still in high demand ahead of today’s publication of the US labor market report. Investors expect the data to further support the dollar, as well as put pressure on the US Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy. In turn, the macroeconomic statistics released yesterday from Europe turned out to be ambiguous. Thus, investors were enthusiastic about the decrease in the unemployment rate in the euro area in May from 8.1% to 7.9%, which turned out to be better than the forecasts of 8%. Also positive were the data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the eurozone from Markit, reflecting an increase in the index from 63.1 points in May to 63.4 points in June. In turn, the data from Germany significantly reduced the bullish sentiment on the euro: the volume of retail sales in May decreased by 2.4% y / y after rising by 4.4% y / y in April. Market forecasts assumed a sharp increase in positive dynamics to + 10.1% y / y.


The British pound is trading with mixed dynamics against the US dollar during the morning session, trying to recover from a strong decline the day before. The reason for the development of “bearish” dynamics on Thursday, in addition to the continued growth of the American currency, was the speech of the head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey, who urged not to rush to premature conclusions regarding the recent jump in inflation in the country. According to the official, the rise in prices is only a temporary phenomenon and can hardly be considered at the moment as a factor in raising interest rates. The additional pressure on the pound positions yesterday was exerted by the macroeconomic statistics from the UK. Thus, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from Markit in June fell from 64.2 to 63.9 points with a neutral forecast.


The New Zealand dollar is showing multidirectional dynamics in the morning session, consolidating around 0.6965. Market participants expect the publication of the final report on the US labor market for June, but the positive forecasts for it have already been largely taken into account in the quotes. The macroeconomic statistics from the USA released yesterday turned out to be ambiguous, but the market focused only on optimistic signals. In particular, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week of June 25 fell from 415 thousand to 364 thousand, which turned out to be better than the market forecasts of a decline to 393 thousand. In turn, the statistics on business activity in the United States turned out to be worse than its forecasts. Thus, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from ISM in June fell from 61.2 to 60.6 points, while analysts expected to fall only to 61 points. The index of employment in the manufacturing sector from ISM for the same period fell below 50 points at all, while the forecast of growth to 53 points.


The U.S. dollar is trading marginally higher against the Japanese yen in Asia, hitting all-time highs since late March 2020. Market activity remains rather low, as traders await the publication of the US employment report, which remained one of the main drivers throughout the week. The macroeconomic statistics from Japan released the day before managed to support the bullish sentiments on the yen for some time, but they were unable to reverse the negative trend. Thus, the index of large manufacturers Tankan at the end of the 2nd quarter of 2021 increased from 5 to 14 points, which turned out to be 1 point lower than the expected value. The activity index for large enterprises in all industries for the same period increased from 3% to 9.6%, while the forecast was at 7.2%. Jibun Bank’s manufacturing PMI rose in June from 51.5 to 52.4 points.


Gold prices show multidirectional dynamics of trading during the morning trading session, consolidating near local highs in anticipation of the publication of the report on the US labor market. The quotes are moderately supported by growing concerns about the spread of a new strain of coronavirus, which threatens a fragile recovery in economic activity. European countries are so far reacting only by postponing the weakening of the existing restrictions, but it is possible that if the epidemiological situation worsens, the authorities will be forced to tighten conditions and introduce new quarantine measures.

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