Review of the dollar, euro, pound, yen, qiwi and gold prices for January 8, 2021


The European currency is showing a slight decline against the US dollar during today’s Asian session, developing the bearish signal formed the day before. Noticeable pressure on the euro was exerted yesterday by a block of macroeconomic statistics from the eurozone, which came out significantly worse than expected. Thus, the volume of retail sales in November decreased by 6.1% mom after growing by 1.4% mom in the previous month. Analysts had expected negative dynamics to appear, but expected a decline of 3.4% m / m. On an annualized basis, sales fell 2.9% y / y, while the forecasts were for an increase of 0.8% y / y. The data on consumer inflation were also negative. At the end of December, the consumer price index dropped by 0.3% y / y, repeating the dynamics of November. Analysts had expected a slight improvement in the indicator to -0.2% y / y. The focus of European investors today is the statistics on industrial production from Germany for November, as well as on the unemployment rate in the eurozone for the same period.


The British pound is trading flat against the US dollar during today’s morning session, consolidating near 1.3550. Technical factors contribute to the decline in the instrument, while the fundamental picture on the market changes insignificantly. The pressure on the pound, as before, is exerted by the fact of the introduction of a full-fledged quarantine in the UK in response to the outbreak, which doctors associate with the detection of a new strain of coronavirus. At the same time, the vaccination campaign is rapidly gaining momentum in the country, but its effect will be noticeable later. Yesterday’s macroeconomic statistics from the UK were moderately negative. Thus, the index of business activity in the construction sector in December fell from 54.7 to 54.6 points with the forecast of growth to 55 points.


The New Zealand dollar is trading with mixed dynamics against the US currency in today’s Asian session. The instrument is consolidating near the level of 0.7250 and is trying to develop the downward impulse formed the day before. Macroeconomic statistics from the USA provided some support to the American currency on Thursday. Thus, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week of January 1 decreased from 790 thousand to 787 thousand, which turned out to be better than analysts’ expectations, who expected the indicator to rise to 800 thousand. The number of secondary applications for the week of December 25 also decreased from 5.198 million to 5.072 million. Market forecasts assumed growth to 5.2 million. A strong bullish signal was also provided by the ISM Service PMI. In December, it rose from 55.9 to 57.2 points with the forecast of a correctional decline to 54.6 points. Today, the focus of investors’ attention is the publication of the December report on the US labor market.


The US dollar is showing moderate gains against the Japanese yen in today’s morning session, updating local highs since December 15, 2020. The American currency received a strong impulse for correctional growth the day before after the publication of positive macroeconomic statistics from the US. At the same time, investors are noticeably cautious on Friday ahead of the publication of the December report on the US labor market. Let’s remind that analysts’ forecasts are very pessimistic. In particular, it is assumed that the number of new jobs created by the US economy in December outside agriculture will grow by only 71 thousand after increasing by 245 thousand in the previous month. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 6.8%.


Gold prices are declining during today’s morning trading session, developing the bearish dynamics on Wednesday, when the pair has been updating local highs since November 9, 2020. The technical strengthening of the American currency, which is supported by the growth in the yield of US Treasury bonds, as well as hopes for a change in fiscal policy by the administration of the new Democratic President Joe Biden, contribute to the negative dynamics for the instrument. Let us also remind that the other day the second round of elections to the Senate in Georgia ended, where both vacancies were taken by the candidates from the Democratic Party, which deprived the Republicans of the majority in the upper house of the US Congress.

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