Review of the dollar, euro, pound, yen, qiwi and gold prices for January 6, 2021


The European currency is trading mixed against the US dollar during today’s morning session, consolidating near the 1.2300 level. The instrument has already managed to renew record highs, however, further advancement of the euro is complicated by some worsening of the epidemiological situation in Europe. Germany extended the partial quarantine until the end of January, and the British authorities decided to do a complete lockdown due to the detection of a new strain of coronavirus, which, according to preliminary estimates, may be 70% more infectious. Macroeconomic statistics from Europe released on Tuesday were mixed. Thus, the volume of retail sales in Germany in November increased by 1.9% m / m and 5.6% y / y, which turned out to be significantly better than investors’ expectations, but still indicates a slowdown in domestic trading activity. The unemployment rate in the largest European economy in December remained at around 6.1%, and the rate of change in the number of unemployed fell by 37 thousand, while forecasts assumed its growth by 10 thousand.


The British pound is trading flat against the US dollar in today’s Asian session, consolidating near the record highs it hit earlier this week. Investors are in no hurry to sell British currency, despite the introduction of a six-week quarantine in the United Kingdom, designed to stop a new surge in the incidence of COVID-19. Some support for the instrument is provided by the program of support of the national economy in the amount of 4.6 billion pounds, announced by the British authorities. In particular, the program provides for the payment of one-time grants in the amount of 9 thousand pounds to service companies affected by the quarantine.


The New Zealand dollar posted moderate gains against the US currency in today’s Asian session, hitting record highs since April 2018. The instrument adds about 0.14% and is actively testing the 0.7260 level for a breakdown upward. Weak positions in the US currency are pushing the instrument to new record highs, however, further growth is constrained by concerns about the worsening epidemiological situation in Europe, where a new strain of coronavirus has been identified. Some support for commodity currencies is also provided by the rise in oil prices, since, according to preliminary information, the OPEC + countries nevertheless decided to maintain the current oil production in February. Additional support for the instrument was provided by data from New Zealand, published on Tuesday. Thus, the price index for dairy products in the second half of December increased by 3.9% after increasing by 1.3% in the previous period.


The US dollar is strengthening against the Japanese yen in trading this morning, retreating from record lows since March 2020. The growth of the American currency is largely due to technical factors, while the fundamental picture on the market changes slightly. Macroeconomic statistics from the US provided noticeable support to the dollar on Tuesday. Thus, the ISM employment index in the manufacturing sector in December rose from 48.4 to 51.5 points against the forecast of growth to 50.7 points. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector for the same period rose from 57.5 to 60.7 points, while a decline was predicted to 56.6 points. The ISM December Manufacturing Index jumped from 65.4 to 77.6, well ahead of its own forecasts of 65.7.


Gold prices are showing a slight decline during today’s Asian session, retreating from local highs since November 9, which managed to be updated earlier this week. The instrument is still supported by the weak dollar, which is waiting for new drivers on the market. Recall that American investors are watching the second round of the Senate elections in Georgia. If at least one Republican candidate wins (with two vacant positions), the Senate will remain with Mitch McConnell, which will allow Republicans to block the controversial initiatives of Democrat Joe Biden in the next two years. If both positions go to the Democrats, then the final word will remain with US Vice President Kamala Harris.

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