Review of the dollar, euro, pound, yen, qiwi and gold prices for January 18, 2021


The European currency has been declining against the US dollar during today’s Asian session, updating local lows since December 9. At the end of last week, the pair was dominated by “bearish” sentiments, which were strengthening against the background of the worsening epidemiological situation in the world. Despite the start of vaccination campaigns, many countries are still forced to maintain and tighten restrictive measures, which negatively affects the pace of global economic recovery. Alarming data, in particular, comes from China, where the maximum number of COVID-19 cases in the past 10 months has already been identified. Germany’s statistical institutes are reporting a record number of deaths from coronavirus infection, despite the fact that the country remains very tight restrictions on the movement of citizens. In this regard, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has once again called for all the necessary measures to be taken to counter the spread of a new strain of coronavirus.


The British pound is declining against the US currency in today’s Asian session, developing the bearish momentum formed at the end of the last trading week. Noticeable pressure on the pound on Friday, in addition to the general negative mood on the market, was exerted by macroeconomic statistics from the UK. Thus, the volume of UK GDP in November decreased by 2.6% m / m after growing by 0.6% m / m in the previous month. However, it should be noted that analysts expected a much more significant decline of 5.7% m / m. Industrial production for the same period fell by 0.1% m / m after increasing by 1.1% m / m in October. The experts’ forecasts assumed the growth of the indicator by 0.5% m / m. On an annualized basis, production rates fell 4.7% YoY, which turned out to be worse than the forecast -4.2% YoY, but slightly higher than the 5.8% YoY decline in the previous month. The quarterly estimate of the UK GDP growth rate from NIESR in December was revised towards a sharp decline from + 4.1% q / q to + 0.9% q / q.


The New Zealand dollar is showing an uncertain decline against the US currency during today’s Asian session, consolidating after a sharp drop last Friday, when demand for the US dollar rose sharply against the background of a worsening epidemiological situation and forecasts for the near future. It is curious that the American currency strengthened on Friday amid disappointing macroeconomic statistics from the US. In particular, the volume of retail sales in December fell by 0.7% m / m, while analysts expected zero dynamics. In November, sales fell 1.4% mom. The consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan in January corrected downward from 80.7 to 79.2 points against the forecast of a fall of only 80 points. In turn, the position of the American currency was supported by the plan to support the American economy, announced by the President-elect Joe Biden. Among other things, the new support measures provide for the allocation of about 20 billion dollars for vaccination of the population and 50 billion for testing.


The US dollar is flat against the Japanese yen during today’s morning session, consolidating around 103.75. Bidders are again reacting to the publication of mixed macroeconomic statistics, which indicate a slowdown in the global economic recovery due to continuing restrictions and still significant epidemiological risks. In particular, American investors reacted negatively to Friday’s data on the dynamics of retail sales in the United States. Today the focus of investors is on statistics from Japan. Thus, the volume of industrial production in the country in November decreased by 0.5% m / m after zero dynamics in October. In annual terms, the rate of decline worsened from the previous -3.4% y / y to -3.9% y / y, which turned out to be worse than the neutral forecasts of analysts.


Gold prices are showing mixed trades during today’s Asian session, consolidating near the opening marks at 1827.00. The instrument showed a decline of about 1.5% last Friday, responding to the corrective growth of the US currency, which was supported by new quarantine restrictions in Europe. An additional positive factor for the dollar was also a new plan to support the American economy from Joe Biden, which provides for direct payments to households, an increase in unemployment benefits and a sharp rise in the minimum wage more than doubled.

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