Review of the dollar, euro, pound, yen, qiwi and gold prices for February 26, 2021


The European currency demonstrates multidirectional dynamics against the US dollar during today’s Asian session. At the opening of trading, the pair was steadily declining, however, the euro managed to win back half of its losses, receiving support from vulnerable positions in the US currency. The pressure on the dollar intensified yesterday after the head of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell re-emphasized the regulator’s commitment to a soft monetary policy, noting that there are no talks at all about its correction towards tightening in the near future. In turn, the US currency on Thursday was supported by strong data from the US on the dynamics of applications for unemployment benefits, which turned out to be much better than forecasted. The focus of traders today is the publication of a block of statistics from the United States on the dynamics of personal income and expenses in January. In addition, after the opening of the American session, the market will receive data on the index of business activity in Chicago and the level of consumer confidence from the University of Michigan for February.


The British pound has been declining against the US dollar during today’s morning session, building on the strong bearish momentum that had formed the day before. The pair is actively testing the level of 1.3975 for a breakdown downward, consolidating below the strong psychological level of 1.4000. Analysts cite technical factors as the reason for the appearance of the downward dynamics for the instrument, since the fundamental picture on the market changes insignificantly. Optimism about the rapid spread of the coronavirus vaccine in the UK is gradually fading as it is largely already incorporated into the current pound quotes. In turn, the pressure on the British currency on the eve was exerted by strong macroeconomic statistics from the United States, which somewhat smoothed out the “dovish” rhetoric of the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. Today British investors are awaiting a speech by the representative of the Bank of England, David Ramsden.


The New Zealand dollar is declining against the US currency during today’s trading in Asia, trying to develop the bearish signal that appeared the day before, when the instrument retreated from its record highs. The New Zealand dollar managed to regain most of its losses, however bearish sentiment still prevails, which is partly due to the technical correction of the purchased instrument at the end of the week. Macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand released on Friday do not provide significant support to the pair. Thus, the consumer confidence index from ANZ in February fell from 113.8 to 113.1 points, which turned out to be worse than the market’s neutral forecasts. Exports from New Zealand slowed in January from $ 5.38 billion to $ 4.19 billion. Imports also fell from $ 5.32 billion to $ 4.82 billion over the same period, leading to a $ 626 million trade deficit in January over the previous month.


The US dollar is showing an uncertain decline against the Japanese yen in trading this morning session. The instrument has already managed to win back some of the losses at the opening and is consolidating near the level of 106.00. The focus of traders’ attention on Friday is a large block of macroeconomic statistics from Japan, which, however, does not provide significant support to the yen. Thus, the volume of retail sales in January decreased by 0.5% MoM after declining by 0.7% MoM in the previous month. On an annualized basis, sales plunged 2.4% YoY after falling 0.2% YoY a month earlier. Market forecasts assumed a 2.6% y / y decline in the indicator. The consumer price index in Tokyo, excluding prices for fresh food, in February fell by 0.3% y / y, which was only 0.1% y / y better than market expectations.


Gold prices are consolidating today after an active decline the day before, which again brought the instrument closer to record lows, updated on February 19. Analysts associate such a sharp drop in quotations of the precious metal with another jump in the yield of American bonds, as well as general optimism in the market, which pushes investors to invest in risky assets. Curiously, gold has almost completely ignored the statements of the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, that the regulator is not considering the possibility of tightening monetary policy in the foreseeable future. If anything, the Fed’s rhetoric will remain the same until the US labor market recovers, which Powell said will take years.

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