EUR / USD
Today during the Asian session, the EUR / USD pair is showing flat trading dynamics, slightly correcting after yesterday’s strong growth caused by a number of technical factors, as well as a massive return to the market of European investors after the Easter holidays. The macroeconomic background from the US remained quite optimistic, but traders who reacted poorly to the publication of the labor market report at the end of last week paid little attention to it. The index of business activity in the service sector from ISM in March rose from 55.3 to 63.7 points, which significantly exceeded analysts’ forecasts of growth only to 58.5 points. A similar index from Markit increased only slightly, from 60.0 to 60.4 points. The statistics on business activity in manufacturing were not published on Monday, however, experts drew attention to the decrease in the volume of industrial orders in February by 0.8% m / m after growth by 2.7% m / m in January. Market forecasts assumed a decrease in the indicator by 0.5% m / m.
GBP / USD
Today, during the Asian session, the GBP / USD pair is consolidating, remaining in the area of new local maximums from March 19, updated the day before. Now the pound is trying to gain a foothold above 1.3900, waiting for new drivers to appear. Investor activity is gradually recovering from the Easter holidays, and traders are returning with a clear interest in risky assets. Strong macroeconomic statistics from the US, released on Friday and Monday, supported the weak optimism in the market. Meanwhile, the pound is strengthening amid a sharp improvement in the epidemiological situation in the country. Bidders expect the British economy to open in April. Against the background of record rates of vaccination of the population and a stable decrease in the incidence rate, according to the authorities’ estimates, it is ready for further steps to remove restrictions.
NZD / USD
Today, during the Asian session, the NZD / USD pair is consolidating, being located near the 0.7050 mark and periodically renewing local maximums since March 23. The instrument is supported at the beginning of the week by technical factors, as well as the gradual return of investors to the market after the Easter holidays. An additional “bullish” factor was the positive macroeconomic statistics from China, indicating a further recovery in the region’s economy. Thus, the Caixin PMI index in the service sector in March rose from 51.5 to 54.3 points, while analysts had expected it to strengthen only to 51.7 points. On Tuesday, traders will focus on a block of macroeconomic statistics from the United States on the dynamics of retail sales from Redbook, as well as the April index of economic optimism from IBD / TIPP. New Zealand is to publish a dairy price index during the day, which has recently shown a relatively stable negative trend.
USD / JPY
Today during the Asian session, the USD / JPY pair is growing moderately, recovering from the active decline the day before. The dollar weakened on Monday, despite the publication of strong macroeconomic statistics on business activity from ISM and Markit. Analysts attribute this to the massive return of investors to the market after the Easter holidays, as well as upward trends on stock exchanges, which provoked a short-term sale of the “safe” US currency. On Tuesday, some pressure on the yen’s position is exerted by ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Thus, household expenditures in February fell sharply by 6.6% y / y after falling by 6.1% y / y in the previous month. Analysts had expected the indicator to decline by only 2.1% y / y. At the same time, the indicator of changes in the level of wages for the same period fell by only 0.2% mom, contrary to forecasts of a decrease by 1.5% yoy.
XAU / USD
Today, during the Asian session, gold prices are rising again, recovering from an uncertain start of the current trading week and updating local highs from March 26. The bulls are taking advantage of some market confusion over the gradual return of investors after the Easter holidays, and are also ignoring the strong US macroeconomic statistics on business levels from ISM and Markit for March. The market is also actively discussing a strong report on the US labor market, which was published last Friday. Gold is supported by a recently announced plan to modernize US infrastructure, which will cost taxpayers more than $ 2 trillion. President Joe Biden has revealed so far only the general details of his new idea of ”keeping America great”, but it is obvious that the country’s budget will require additional tax injections. In addition, analysts fear a noticeable rise in inflation amid a sharp increase in budget spending.
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