Review of the dollar, euro, pound, yen, qiwi and gold prices for April 30, 2021


The European currency shows mixed trading dynamics against the US dollar during today’s Asian session, consolidating after another renewal of local highs the day before, when the pair reached 1.2148. Some support for the single currency on Thursday was provided by data on consumer inflation from Germany. Thus, the harmonized consumer price index in April rose from 2% y / y to 2.1% y / y. On a monthly basis, the inflation rate was + 0.5% mom, which coincided with the March data, but turned out to be better than market expectations at 0.4% mom. At the same time, investors were disappointed with the data on the German labor market. In particular, the rate of change in the number of unemployed in April rose by 9 thousand after falling by 6 thousand in March. Analysts expected a further decrease in the indicator by 10 thousand. The focus of investors today will be statistics on the dynamics of GDP in the eurozone for the 1st quarter of 2021, as well as April data on the level of consumer prices.


The British pound remains marginally higher against the US dollar at the end of the week, testing resistance around 1.3950. The factors of positive dynamics for the instrument remain the same: the market is enthusiastic about the prospects for the recovery of the British economy against the backdrop of an active vaccination campaign, which gives hope for the early lifting of most of the quarantine restrictions. In addition, traders expect a meeting of the Bank of England on monetary policy, which will take place on May 6, believing that the regulator can significantly increase forecasts regarding the pace of recovery of the national economy.


The New Zealand dollar is slightly strengthening against the American currency during today’s trading in Asia, again testing the 0.7250 mark for a breakdown upward. The day before, the instrument did not manage to gain a foothold at new local highs near the level of 0.7285, which was partly due to the publication of strong data on the dynamics of US GDP for the 1st quarter of 2021. The year-on-year data reflected a 6.4% y / y increase after a 4.3% y / y increase in the previous period. Analysts’ forecasts assumed an increase of only 6.1% y / y. Today, statistics from New Zealand and China provide moderate support to the instrument. Thus, the consumer confidence index from ANZ in April rose from 110.8 to 115.4 points, which turned out to be better than the market average forecasts. China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose from 50.6 to 51.9 in April, beating analysts’ forecasts of 50.8.


The US dollar is noticeably weakening against the Japanese yen in trading today in the Asian session, again trying to gain a foothold below 109.00. Apart from a number of technical factors, macroeconomic statistics from Japan are exerting moderate pressure on the US currency today. Thus, the unemployment rate in the country in March fell from 2.9% to 2.6%, which turned out to be better than the neutral forecasts of analysts. Industrial production rose 4% y / y in March after falling 2% y / y in February. On a monthly basis, production growth rates amounted to + 2.2% mom, while analysts expected their decline by 2% mom. The only disappointing factor was inflation statistics. Thus, the Tokyo consumer price index, excluding food and energy prices, showed zero dynamics in April after growing by 0.3% y / y in March.


Gold prices are slightly declining during today’s Asian session, building on the downward momentum that formed the day before, when investors reacted by selling the instrument again amid renewed growth in US Treasury yields. Additional pressure on gold on Thursday came from the upbeat macroeconomic statistics from the United States on GDP dynamics for the 1st quarter of 2021, which confirmed the course of the American economy towards a confident recovery after the coronavirus crisis. The focus of investors today is statistics from the United States on the dynamics of personal income and expenses for March. In addition, traders expect the publication of the Chicago PMI and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for April.

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