Review of the dollar, euro, pound, yen, qiwi and gold prices for April 16, 2021


The European currency is trading flat against the US dollar during today’s Asian session, trying to develop the downward momentum formed the day before, when the euro retreated from its local highs since March 4. The instrument failed to reach strong resistance at the psychological level of 1.2000, where a significant part of the take profit was located. The euro’s positions on Thursday were under pressure from not the most confident macroeconomic statistics from Europe, while the data from the US pleased with a significant increase in the dynamics of retail sales in March. The consumer price index in Germany in March increased by 0.5% m / m and 1.7% y / y, which coincided with analysts’ expectations and did not have a noticeable effect on the dynamics of the instrument. At the same time, the harmonized consumer price index remained at the same level of 2%, which is the target value for the European regulator. Today investors expect the publication of statistics on consumer inflation as a whole for the eurozone. In addition, during the day, bidders will follow the meeting of the Council of Ministers of Finance and Economy of the Eurozone.


The British pound has declined against the US dollar during this morning session, correcting after a slight gain throughout the trading week. Investors are focused on statistics from the US, which managed to support buying sentiment on the dollar on Thursday. Thus, the volume of retail sales in March increased by 9.8% mom after falling by 2.7% mom in February. Analysts expected positive dynamics to appear, but expected only + 5.9% m / m. The data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits were also positive. During the week of April 9, the number of initial applications decreased from 769 thousand to 576 thousand, which turned out to be much better than the expected 700 thousand.However, it should be noted that the number of repeated applications for benefits still increased from 3.727 million to 3.731 million with the forecast of a decrease to 3.7 million


The New Zealand dollar is showing mixed dynamics in trading during today’s Asian session, consolidating near its local highs since March 22. The instrument is under pressure from technical factors, as in the last three trading sessions the New Zealand dollar has shown strong growth. Some support for the pair on Friday was provided by upbeat macroeconomic data from New Zealand and China. Thus, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of New Zealand in March rose sharply from 53.4 to 63.6 points, which turned out to be much better than the negative forecasts of a decline to 51.3 points. China supported the positive sentiment in the market, showing GDP growth in 1Q2021 by an impressive 18.3% YoY after increasing by 6.5% YoY in the last quarter. However, analysts’ forecasts assumed an increase of 18.9% y / y. On a quarterly basis, the Chinese economy continues to slow down: in the first quarter of 2021, GDP grew by only 0.6% qoq, while the forecast of an increase of 1.5% qoq.


The US dollar is showing corrective growth today against the Japanese yen, preparing to test the level of 109.00 for a breakdown upwards. The reason for the emergence of upward dynamics, in addition to the obvious technical factors of profit fixation at the end of the week, is the strong macroeconomic statistics from the US on the dynamics of retail sales and the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits. The data published the day before eloquently testify to the high rates of recovery of the American economy, which is also accompanied by a rapid rise in inflation. At the same time, it is too early to talk about the reversal of the trend with the incidence of coronavirus in the United States, since, despite the high rates of vaccination, the situation remains tense. The focus of investors’ attention on Friday will be the March statistics on the US housing market, which may also show moderate growth.


Gold prices are consolidating after active growth the day before, which led to the renewal of local highs since February 26. The instrument responded to another decline in the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds, which fell to 1.553% on Thursday. The dollar also remained quite vulnerable, despite the publication of strong macroeconomic statistics from the United States on the number of jobless claims and record retail sales, driven by aid payments during the pandemic. Gold also reacted to further escalation of tensions between the US and the Russian Federation after Washington announced new sanctions on the Russian national debt. At the same time, US President Joe Biden said that he still expects a dialogue with Moscow and intends to hold a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin this summer.

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