Review of the dollar, euro, pound, yen, aussie and gold prices for May 31, 2021


The European currency is showing flat dynamics against the US dollar during the Asian session, consolidating near the level of 1.2200 and waiting for new drivers to appear on the market. The positions of the single currency seem to be relatively stable, however, there are really few strong fundamental reasons for the further growth of the euro. Macroeconomic statistics from the eurozone released last Friday managed to support the buying sentiment for the instrument, which is now based on the weakness of the American currency. One way or another, the indicator of sentiment in the services sector in May rose from 2.2 to 11.3 points, which turned out to be significantly better than market expectations at 7.5 points. The index of business optimism in the industry for the same period rose from 10.9 to 11.5 points, ahead of forecasts at the level of 11 points. The index of economic sentiment in May strengthened from 110.5 to 114.5 points, while analysts had expected growth to only 112.1 points.


The British pound again shows moderate growth in pairing with the US currency in the morning session, recovering from the multidirectional dynamics of last Friday and preparing for another testing of resistance at 1.4200. The focus of investors is on the statistics from the United States on personal income and spending, which was published on Friday. In addition, the markets are discussing the US $ 6 trillion national budget for 2022, proposed by President Joe Biden. Macroeconomic statistics failed to support buying sentiment for the US currency, despite the fact that the data came out better than market expectations. Thus, the volume of personal incomes of American citizens in April decreased by 13.1% m / m after growing by 20.9% m / m in March. Analysts had expected revenues to fall by 14.1% mom. Expenses for the same period slowed down from + 4.7% m / m to + 0.5% m / m. The PMI index of Chicago in May rose from 72.1 to 75.2 points, which turned out to be better than the market’s expectations of a decline to 68 points.


The Aussie has shown moderate gains against the US currency during the Asian session, trying to recover from a decline late last week that led to renewed local lows since May 4. Moderate support for the instrument is provided by the macroeconomic statistics published on Monday from Australia and China. Thus, the volume of crediting to the private sector in Australia in April showed an increase of 0.2% mom after an increase of 0.4% mom in March. On an annualized basis, lending growth rates increased from + 1.0% yoy to + 1.3% yoy. The Chinese data showed a solid growth in the PMI in the services sector. At the end of May, the indicator increased from 54.9 to 55.2 points, while analysts expected it to fall to 52.7 points. But the level of business activity in the manufacturing sector from NBS in May slightly decreased from 51.1 to 51.0 points, while experts did not expect any changes at all. Australian investors are now awaiting the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision with an accompanying press conference on Tuesday.


The US dollar shows a moderate decline against the Japanese yen in trading in Asia, retreating from local highs since early April, updated at the end of last week. Investors are now focusing on a large block of macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Thus, the volume of retail sales in the country in March decreased by 4.5% mom after rising by 1.2% mom in February. At the same time, in annual terms, the indicator sharply accelerated from + 5.2% YoY to + 12% YoY. Industrial production growth rates accelerated in April from + 1.7% mom to + 2.5% mom, which, however, fell short of the expected value of + 4.1% mom. On an annualized basis, production rose 15.4% y / y after rising 3.4% y / y in March. The indicator of the started construction of houses also exceeded expectations. In April, it reached 7.1% y / y against the forecast at 3.5% y / y.


Gold prices continue to grow steadily at the opening of trading, again trying to gain a foothold above the psychological mark of 1900.00 and approaching the previous local maximums, updated on May 26. The instrument, as before, is supported by rather vulnerable positions of the American currency. The statistics released last Friday once again pointed to the growth of inflationary pressures within the country, which the US Federal Reserve still prefers to ignore. The instrument is additionally supported by a decline in the yield of US Treasury bonds. Finally, the markets are discussing a preliminary plan presented by Joe Biden last Friday to modernize infrastructure in the United States, which will require an increase in federal budget spending in 2022 to $ 6 trillion.

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