Review of the dollar, euro, pound, yen, aussie and gold prices for March 8, 2021


The European currency has been declining against the US dollar during today’s Asian session, developing a strong bearish momentum that has captured the instrument since March 3 and has led to renewed local lows since November 26, 2020. The pressure on the positions of the single currency at the beginning of the week was exerted by strong data from the US on employment, published last Friday. Recall that the number of new jobs created by the American economy outside of agriculture in February increased by 379 thousand after increasing by 166 thousand in the previous month. Analysts expected an increase in the indicator by 182 thousand. Another factor in the growth of the US dollar is the increased yield of US Treasury bonds, as well as the rather sluggish reaction of the US Federal Reserve to such an active dynamics in the bond market. The focus of European traders today is statistics from Germany on the dynamics of industrial production in January.


The British pound strengthened slightly against the US dollar on Monday, trying to return to corrective growth after a decline at the end of last week and renewed local lows since February 12. The British currency is depreciating against the background of a large-scale growth of the dollar practically across the entire spectrum of the market, however, the rather optimistic epidemiological situation in the country allows the instrument to demonstrate active corrective attacks. Recall that the markets expect the lifting of most of the quarantine restrictions in the United Kingdom by the end of March, which should have a beneficial effect on the rate of recovery of the British economy. Today investors are awaiting a speech by the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, who is likely to comment on the recent strengthening of the pound and touch on the pressing issue of adjusting the bond yield curve.


The Australian dollar is showing mixed performance against the US currency during today’s morning session, consolidating near the 0.7700 level. The instrument is again under pressure after the publication of strong data on US employment last Friday, which turned out to be significantly better than market expectations. In addition, investors were enthusiastic about the success of the US Senate vote on new measures to support the US economy. The bill from President Joe Biden was approved in the Senate by a margin of only one vote, but before that senators had made many amendments to the law. Now the “Plan for the Salvation of America” ​​has to return to the House of Representatives of the US Congress, after which it will be able to get signed by Joe Biden. Some support for the Australian dollar at the beginning of the new week is provided by good macroeconomic indicators from China. In particular, exports from China in February grew by a record 60.6% y / y, which was more than 1.5 times better than analysts’ expectations.


The US dollar continues to trade against the Japanese yen with an upward trend, however, the instrument’s activity remains rather low at the beginning of the week, as investors expect new drivers to appear on the market. The strong macroeconomic statistics from the US released last Friday supported the dollar bulls, which are already showing record results. Today, the focus of Japanese investors is on a block of macroeconomic statistics from Japan, which is preceded by the publication of updated data on Japan’s GDP dynamics for the 4th quarter of 2020, scheduled for Tuesday. Thus, the volume of bank lending in February increased by 6.2% y / y after increasing by 6.1% y / y in the previous month. In turn, the seasonally adjusted balance of payments in January fell from 1.165.6 billion to 646.8 billion Japanese yen, which was significantly worse than the optimistic forecasts of growth to 1229.6 billion Japanese yen.


Gold prices are consolidating near their nine-month lows at the beginning of the week, maintaining the bearish momentum that has been traced in the instrument’s dynamics since February 23rd. The growing yields on US bonds, as well as the reluctance of the US Federal Reserve to intervene in this process, exert significant pressure on gold’s positions. According to the head of the American regulator Jerome Powell, the current surge in bond market yields is associated with the natural process of economic recovery and is to a lesser extent caused by any speculation. Additional pressure on gold at the end of last week had a strong February labor market report. The number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector in February increased by 379 thousand after increasing by 166 thousand in the previous period. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell from 6.3% to 6.2%, which also turned out to be better than the neutral forecasts of analysts.

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