Review of the dollar, euro, pound, yen, aussie and gold prices for March 29, 2021


The European currency is showing mixed trading dynamics against the US dollar during today’s Asian session, encountering strong resistance at 1.1800. Recall that at the end of last week, the pair attempted an upward correction after a three-day “bearish” rally, which led to the renewal of local minimums since November 12. In addition to obvious technical factors, the euro was supported by strong data on business sentiment from IFO in Germany. Thus, the March index of business optimism rose from 92.7 to 96.6 points against the forecast of an increase to 93.2 points. The index of economic expectations for the same period rose from 95 to 100.4 points, while forecasts assumed its growth to 95.2 points. The indicator for assessing the current situation increased from 90.6 to 93 points, also exceeding investors’ expectations at 91.3 points.


The British pound is consolidating against the US currency in today’s morning session after active growth at the end of last week, when the instrument managed to move away from its local lows since February 5. Macroeconomic statistics from the UK on the dynamics of retail sales added to the activity of the “bulls” at the auction last Friday. Thus, the February indicator reflected an increase of 2.1% mom, which turned out to be significantly better than the decline of 8.1% mom in January. On an annualized basis, sales expectedly maintained negative dynamics at the level of –3.7% YoY, but also exceeded –5.9% YoY in the previous period. The instrument is further supported by the optimistic mood of British investors, who are pleased with the dynamics of vaccinations in the UK, especially in contrast to the problems in Europe. Today analysts expect the publication of February statistics on the dynamics of consumer lending in the UK.


The Australian dollar is flat against the US currency during today’s Asian session, trading near local highs since March 23rd. Last Friday, the instrument showed quite active growth, which was mainly due to technical factors, as well as not the strongest macroeconomic statistics from the United States. Thus, the volume of personal spending in the United States in February decreased by 1% mom after growing by 3.4% mom in the last month. Analysts expected negative dynamics to appear, but expected only -0.7% m / m. Personal income in February also showed a sharp decline of 7.1% mom after increasing by 10.1% mom in January. The instrument is further supported by a gradual recovery in global trade activity as vaccination programs proliferate and expand.


The US dollar is significantly lower against the Japanese yen in trading in today’s Asian session, retreating from record highs since June 2020, updated at the end of last week. Technical factors remain the reason for the appearance of the “bearish” dynamics for the instrument, since the news background is quite calm. Investors continue to play on the controversial US macroeconomic statistics on personal income and spending in February, as well as assess the prospects for further global economic recovery as the coronavirus pandemic recedes. The focus of traders this week will be the Friday publication of the March US labor market report. The pace of recovery in the world’s largest economy is expected to accelerate sharply and the unemployment rate is expected to retreat to 6%.


Gold prices are consolidating at the beginning of the week, correcting after another growth attempt at trading last Friday. The instrument’s position is still under pressure from a moderate strengthening of the American currency, as well as an increase in the yield of US Treasury bonds, which recently served as the main driver for the asset’s movement in the market. In addition, investors are responding to the recovery in trading activity and are hoping for a gradual lifting of most of the quarantine restrictions by the summer-fall of 2021. As a positive factor for gold, one can note the policy of low interest rates, which is applied by the world’s leading financial regulators. Obviously, in the context of the current economic growth, rates will remain at their minimum values ​​for quite a long time, which will provide some support to the trading instrument.

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