Review of the dollar, euro, pound, yen, aussie and gold prices for March 26, 2021


The European currency is correcting slightly against the US dollar during today’s Asian session, trying to recover from a three-day bearish rally, which resulted in the instrument renewing its lows since November 11, 2020. Some support for the pair is still provided by macroeconomic data from the eurozone on business activity, which stand out especially against the background of the difficult epidemiological situation in the region. Recall that many European countries are forced to maintain significant restrictions on the movement of citizens and the work of small and medium-sized businesses, which slows down the process of economic recovery. An important negative role is played by the problems with vaccination against the background of the temporary ban of the drug from AstraZeneca and the bureaucratic delays in the process of approving the Russian Sputnik V vaccine. Investors’ attention is currently focused on the European Council summit, where on Thursday the prospects for maintaining the current restrictions were actively discussed. The leaders of European states preferred to abandon secondary political issues and concentrate on the problems of vaccination and the pandemic in general.


The British pound is showing corrective gains against the US dollar in today’s morning session, developing the “bullish” signal formed the day before. Technical factors are the reason for the strengthening of the instrument, while among the fundamental reasons for the weakening of the American currency, one can single out, for example, a further decrease in the yield of American bonds. In turn, yesterday the dollar received moderate support from macroeconomic publications in the US. Thus, the revised data reflected the growth of the American economy in the 4th quarter of 2020 by 4.3% y / y, which turned out to be 0.2% better than the forecast. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week of March 19 fell sharply from 781 thousand to 684 thousand, which also outpaced the positive market expectations of a decline to 730 thousand. The number of secondary applications for the first time in a long time dropped below 4 million and was fixed at 3.87 million after 4.134 million in the previous period. Today investors expect the publication of data on the dynamics of retail sales in the UK for February.


The Australian currency is recovering against the US dollar in today’s Asian trading, again trying to gain a foothold above 0.7600. The American currency is weakening, despite yesterday’s publication of strong macroeconomic statistics from the US. Investors assess the prospects for new difficulties in the economy provoked by the blocking of the Suez Canal and another deterioration in relations between Washington and Beijing. The canal has remained blocked since Tuesday, with more than 200 ships currently waiting in line. In turn, new difficulties in relations between the United States and China were caused by the refusal of a number of American companies to cooperate with Chinese cotton suppliers from Xinjiang province, where, according to Washington, human rights are grossly violated.


The US dollar posted marginally gains against the Japanese yen in today’s Asian session, hitting local highs since March 17. Moderate support for the instrument is provided by yesterday’s macroeconomic publications from the US. In particular, investors were optimistic about the decrease in the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits below the psychological mark of 700 thousand. In turn, the Japanese statistics, published today, impedes the development of a more confident uptrend for the instrument. Thus, the consumer price index in Tokyo, excluding food and energy prices, accelerated in March from + 0.2% y / y to + 0.3% y / y, which turned out to be better than the market’s neutral forecasts. Excluding fresh food prices, inflation in Tokyo fell 0.1% y / y after falling 0.3% y / y in February.


Gold prices are recovering during today’s morning trading session, recouping Thursday’s losses. The pressure on the positions of the American currency continued to be exerted by the yield of US Treasuries, which is retreating from the annual highs, updated last week. In turn, the dollar strengthened against the backdrop of the publication of strong macroeconomic statistics from the US, as well as against the backdrop of a new round of deterioration in relations between Washington and Beijing. The blocking of the Suez Canal by the ship, which could significantly affect the dynamics on the commodity markets, especially on the oil market, added nervousness to the market.

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