Review of the dollar, euro, pound, yen, aussie and gold prices for March 23, 2021


The European currency is consolidating against the US dollar in today’s trading after strong growth the day before, which allowed the instrument to return to the levels of a week ago. The pair was supported by a decrease in the yield of US bonds, which contributed to the development of correctional sentiments for the dollar. In turn, European investors fear a further deterioration of the epidemiological situation in the region. Following France, Germany also announced the extension of the quarantine, so there is clearly no reason to expect a noticeable recovery in the eurozone economy this spring. The macroeconomic statistics from the eurozone released yesterday turned out to be worse than expected and also did not contribute to the development of the “bullish” dynamics for the instrument. Thus, the seasonally adjusted current account balance in the eurozone in January fell sharply from 51.9 to 5.8 billion euros, which turned out to be significantly worse than market expectations at 34.3 billion euros.


The British pound is slightly declining against the US dollar during today’s morning trading session, correcting after similar sluggish gains the previous day. British investors are in no hurry to open new trading positions, preferring to wait for today’s publication of the UK labor market report for January-February. In addition, the market expects a speech by the head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey. Tomorrow, the UK is to publish February statistics on consumer inflation and retail price dynamics. Inflation, as well as consumer prices, is expected to rise moderately in February, which clearly correlates with the gradual recovery of the UK economy, which has made significant progress in the vaccination campaign. The latter is particularly in contrast to the setbacks in Europe, where there are problems with the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine, and many countries are forced to extend restrictive measures.


The Australian dollar is significantly decreasing against the American currency in today’s trading in Asia, leveling the results of the “bullish” start of the week. The instrument is currently under pressure from technical factors, while the fundamental picture on the market is changing insignificantly. Weak macroeconomic statistics, published in the US yesterday, provide noticeable support to the pair. Thus, the index of national activity of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in February fell from 0.75 to -1.09 points, which turned out to be significantly worse than the forecast for a reduction to only 0.21 points. The volume of sales in the secondary housing market in the United States fell noticeably in February by 6.6% m / m after a slight increase by 0.2% m / m last month. Analysts’ forecasts assumed a decrease in the indicator by only 3% m / m.


The US dollar is falling against the Japanese yen in trading this morning session, correcting after the growth the day before, which allowed the American currency to retreat from the local lows since March 12. The instrument’s positions are under moderate pressure after the renewed decline in US bond yields and yesterday’s release of disappointing macroeconomic statistics on the dynamics of sales in the US secondary housing market. In turn, Japanese statistics managed to support the yen. Thus, the index of coincident indicators in January rose from 87.4 to 90.3 points, while the forecast of an increase to 91.7 points. The index of leading indicators for the same period rose from 97.7 to 98.5 points, which also turned out to be slightly worse than analysts’ forecasts at 99.1 points.


Gold prices are relatively stable during today’s Asian trading session, consolidating after a moderate decline the day before. A noticeable support for the instrument is provided by the decline in the yield of US bonds, which retreated from their annual maximums. In addition, investors are reacting to the release of disappointing US macroeconomic statistics. In turn, pressure on gold quotes on Monday intensified with the sudden firing of the head of the Turkish Central Bank, which was criticized for a sharp increase in interest rates. Investors fear that Turkey may face a new currency crisis, given high inflation and virtually empty reserves.

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