Review of the dollar, euro, pound, yen, aussie and gold prices for March 2, 2021


EUR / USD

Today, during the Asian session, the EUR / USD pair is declining, updating local lows since February 5, 2021 and preparing to test the psychological level of 1.2000 for a breakdown downward. Investors again prefer the safer dollar to the risky euro, which receives additional support from macroeconomic statistics and expectations of additional support for the American economy. Business activity data released yesterday was better than market expectations. Thus, the ISM business activity index in the manufacturing sector in February rose from 58.7 to 60.8 points, while the forecasts assumed growth only to 58.8 points. A similar indicator from Markit increased from 58.5 to 58.6 points, which was in line with market expectations. The focus of European investors on Tuesday is the German retail sales statistics for January. Also during the day there will be February data on consumer inflation in the euro area.

GBP / USD

Today, during the Asian session, the GBP / USD pair is declining, developing a bearish signal that formed at the end of the last trading week, when the instrument retreated from its record highs. The pound is retreating against the background of a large-scale strengthening of the American currency on almost all fronts, which is clearly associated with the redistribution of forces after the correction in the bond market. Macroeconomic statistics from Great Britain released on Monday remained mixed, however, they could not have a noticeable impact on the instrument’s dynamics. Thus, the index of business activity in the UK manufacturing sector from Markit in February rose from 54.9 to 55.1 points, which turned out to be better than the neutral forecasts of analysts. At the same time, the volume of consumer lending in the country in January fell by a significant 2.392 billion pounds after falling by 0.965 billion last month.

AUD / USD

Today during the Asian session, the AUD / USD pair is showing mixed dynamics, consolidating after yesterday’s correction attempt. The focus of the market is on the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia on the interest rate, as well as related comments. As expected, the regulator did not change the parameters of monetary policy and kept the rate at 0.1%. At the same time, it became known that last week the bank temporarily doubled its own purchases of long-term bonds in order to keep the yield, which has recently been significantly corrected, at the target levels. The accompanying statement noted that the RBA is still striving for the 3-year target for the yield, taking all necessary measures to stabilize this value. The rate will remain minimal until the target inflation rate of 2-3% is reached. This is not expected to happen until 2024.

USD / JPY

Today, during the Asian session, the USD / JPY pair is growing, updating local highs since the end of last August. The US currency is supported by a reduced demand for risk in response to significant fluctuations in the bond market. In addition, investors are worried about the mixed pace of economic recovery in Europe, which remains significantly affected by the coronavirus pandemic. On Tuesday, the yen is positively influenced by the published data. Thus, the unemployment rate in January remained at the same level of 2.9%, contrary to forecasts of growth to 3.0%. The indicator of the ratio of the number of vacancies to applicants for the same period increased from 1.06 to 1.1, which was better than the neutral forecasts of analysts.

XAU / USD

Gold prices are declining during the Asian session today, hitting record lows since June 2020. The day before, the instrument was growing steadily in response to corrective sentiments in the market for US bond yields, but by the close of the trading session, gold returned to the “red” zone. The instrument is somewhat supported by the expectations of the approval of a new aid package for the American economy. On Monday, it became known that the bill has received approval in the US House of Representatives and will now be sent to the Senate, where Republicans and Democrats maintain parity in the number of votes.

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