Review of the dollar, euro, pound, yen, aussie and gold prices for March 10, 2021


The European currency is declining again against the US dollar during today’s Asian session, returning to the “bearish” dynamics after the correctional growth the day before, which was triggered by the stabilization of US bond yields, which increased the attractiveness of “risky” currencies. Macroeconomic statistics from Europe released yesterday did not have a noticeable impact on the instrument’s dynamics. Thus, the eurozone’s GDP in the 4th quarter of 2020 decreased by 0.7% qoq after falling by 0.6% qoq according to previous estimates. In annual terms, the decline in the region’s economy was revised from -5% y / y to -4.9% y / y. Only the data on the dynamics of exports from Germany encouraged investors a little. In January, the indicator rose by 1.4% mom after increasing by 0.4% mom a month earlier. Market forecasts assumed a decrease in export volumes by 0.1% mom.


The British pound declines against the US dollar in trading this morning after an attempt at corrective gains the day before, which was triggered by a decline in US Treasury yields in response to the actions of the US Treasury. Additional support for the British currency was provided yesterday by strong data on the dynamics of retail sales in the UK from the Confederation of British Industrialists. As a reminder, the February index rose 9.5% y / y after increasing by 7.1% y / y in the previous month. Analysts’ forecasts assumed sales growth of only 7% y / y. A good backdrop for the pound is also provided by the upbeat news on the coronavirus. The UK continues to increase the volume of vaccinations of the population, and the latest data indicate that the drugs used are effective against the British, African and Brazilian strains of the virus.


The Australian dollar is falling against the US currency in today’s trading in Asia, returning to the usual “bearish” trend after active corrective gains on Tuesday. The instrument is again under pressure from the growing yields on US bonds, which have recently shown some signs of stabilization. In turn, the Australian currency is supported by good macroeconomic statistics from Australia and China. Thus, the index of consumer confidence in Australia in March from Westpac showed an increase of 2.6% m / m after rising by 1.9% m / m in the previous month. Analysts had expected more modest growth of the index by 1.8% m / m. Chinese data reflected a 0.6% mom rise in February CPI after rising 1.0% mom in January. Market forecasts assumed a slowdown in dynamics to + 0.4% m / m. In annual terms, inflation fell by 0.2% y / y, which turned out to be twice better than the experts’ forecasts.


The US dollar has returned to active gains against the Japanese currency in trading in today’s Asian session, once again getting close to strong resistance at 109.00. On the eve, the instrument showed mostly bearish dynamics, but at the opening of yesterday’s trading session it still managed to renew its record highs, which was the market’s reaction to weak data from Japan. Thus, Japan’s GDP in Q4 2020 was revised downward from + 3% q / q to + 2.8% q / q. Household spending plummeted 6.1% y / y in January after falling just 0.6% y / y last month. Analysts had expected the dynamics to deteriorate, but had hoped for a decline of only 2.1% y / y. The focus of attention of investors today is statistics from the US on the dynamics of consumer prices in February. Analysts do not expect a significant increase in inflation, but the indicators are extremely important, since the US Federal Reserve System is used to determine the vector of monetary policy.


Gold prices are consolidating during today’s morning session after strong growth the day before, which was triggered by the stabilization of yields on the US bond market. At the same time, as the subsequent dynamics showed, the correction of the securities was only temporary and the high yield continues to exert significant pressure on the instrument. Additional support for gold is provided by the expectations of the final approval of a package of financial assistance to the American economy in the amount of $ 1.9 trillion. We will remind that the US Senate approved the bill last week by a margin of only one vote. Now, since the document has undergone a number of changes, it must go through a second vote in the House of Representatives of the US Congress, after which it will go for signature to President Joe Biden.

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