Review of the dollar, euro, pound, yen, aussie and gold prices for July 6, 2021


The European currency has shown slight gains against the US dollar during the Asian session, recovering from mixed trading on Monday after the publication of moderately optimistic statistics from the eurozone. Thus, the index of business activity in the services sector from Markit in June rose from 58 to 58.3 points, which turned out to be better than the market’s neutral forecasts. In the manufacturing sector, the composite activity index rose from 59.2 to 59.5 points, which also outpaced market forecasts of 59.2 points. The focus of traders today is the May statistics on the dynamics of retail sales in the Eurozone, as well as the July survey from the ZEW on the dynamics of economic sentiment. The market is also expecting a speech by the Vice President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Luis de Guindos.


The British pound is significantly strengthening against the US dollar in the morning session, renewing local maximums since June 28. On the eve of the noteworthy macroeconomic statistics from the US, the market did not arrive, so the previous drivers remained in force. The American currency received an impulse for sales at the end of last week after the publication of an ambiguous report on the labor market, which clearly testified in favor of the wait-and-see position of the US Federal Reserve. In turn, the pound received moderate support after the release of statistics on business activity in the UK. Thus, the June index of activity in the service sector showed an increase from 61.7 to 62.4 points, which turned out to be better than the neutral forecasts of analysts. Today the market situation may start to change. Traders are awaiting the publication of a large block of statistics from Markit and ISM on US business activity. The main focus of investors’ attention is gradually shifting to tomorrow, when the minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting will be published.


The Australian dollar has shown significant gains against the US currency in trading in Asia, updating local highs since the end of June and actively testing the 0.7570 mark for a breakdown. The instrument significantly benefited from the publication of Friday’s US labor market report, as investors rushed to look for alternatives to the “safe” US currency, expecting the US Federal Reserve to maintain current monetary policy for some time to come. Bullish sentiment was supported yesterday by moderately optimistic macroeconomic statistics from Australia. In particular, investors reacted positively to a 0.4% mom growth in retail sales in May after a 0.1% mom growth in April. Today the focus of traders is the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), at which, as expected, the regulator left the interest rate level unchanged at 0.1%. As for the bond buyback program, the RBA intends to prolong it after completion in early September. The regulator is expected to buy bonds worth $ 4 billion a week until at least mid-November.


The US dollar is showing negative dynamics against the Japanese yen in the morning session, consolidating near 111.00. The American currency remains negative since last Friday, when the market received a very controversial report on the US labor market for June, which provoked a new wave of dollar sales. As for the yen, investors expect a longer period of low rates and an ongoing quantitative easing program in Japan, but by and large the picture has changed only slightly. Macroeconomic statistics provide some support to the Japanese currency today. Thus, wages in Japan in May increased by 1.9% y / y, accelerating from + 1.4% y / y. Analysts’ forecasts assumed a slowdown to + 1.3% y / y. At the same time, household spending in May slightly slowed down from + 13% y / y to + 11.6% y / y, but turned out to be better than market expectations at + 10.9% y / y.


Gold prices are showing active growth during the Asian trading session, updating local highs since June 17 and actively testing another strong resistance at around 1800.00. The instrument, like commodity currencies, significantly benefited from the publication of the controversial report on the US labor market for June last Friday. Investors have received confirmation of their fears that the US Federal Reserve will not rush to tighten monetary policy this year. Traders acted proactively, and therefore now the market is responding to the published data by selling the American currency. However, hopes for a revision of monetary policy by the regulator remain. Tomorrow the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve will be released on the market, which can significantly affect the mood of the players.

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