Review of the dollar, euro, pound, yen, aussie and gold prices for January 25, 2021


The European currency maintains a moderate upward trend against the American currency in today’s trading, being located near the local highs since January 13, which the instrument managed to update the day before. Support for the single currency at the end of last week was provided mainly by technical factors, while the macroeconomic background did not have a noticeable increase in the instrument. Thus, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the euro zone in January fell from 55.2 to 54.7 points, which was slightly better than market expectations at 54.5 points. In the service sector, business activity showed a decline from 46.4 to 45 points, while analysts forecast a decline to 44.5 points. Another negative factor for the euro is the difficult epidemiological situation in Europe, which is characterized by continuing restrictive measures in many countries. It is obvious that the ongoing quarantine will derail plans to restore the region’s economy in the first half of 2021, especially given the negative forecasts for the preservation of restrictive measures until spring or even until summer.


The British pound is strengthening against the US currency in trading in today’s Asian session, recovering from last Friday’s decline, when traders reacted negatively to the publication of weak data on retail sales and business activity in the UK. Thus, December retail sales increased by 0.3% mom and 2.9% yoy, which turned out to be significantly worse than market expectations (+ 1.2% mom and + 4% yoy). Recall that in the previous month, sales in the UK showed a sharp decline of 4.1% m / m. The index of business activity in the UK manufacturing sector from Markit in January fell from 57.5 to 52.9 points, which was worse than market forecasts at 54 points. The index of business activity in the services sector for the same period fell from 49.4 to 38.8 points, while analysts expected its decline to only 45 points.


The Australian dollar shows moderate gains against the US currency in trading this morning session, correcting after a decline at the end of last week, when the US currency managed to strengthen amid the publication of rather positive macroeconomic statistics on business activity in the US. Thus, the PMI Markit in the manufacturing sector rose in January from 57.1 to 59.1 points, ahead of forecasts of a decline to 56.5 points. In the service sector, the same indicator strengthened from 54.8 to 57.5 points, which also turned out to be significantly better than the expected 53.6 points. Australian data, in turn, disappointed with a sharp decline in retail sales in December by 4.2% m / m after rising by 7.1% m / m in the previous month. Australian markets are closed on Monday for a national holiday, which, coupled with a poor macroeconomic background, will support the development of corrective dynamics for the instrument.


The US dollar is showing slight gains against the Japanese yen, supported by strong macroeconomic statistics that were released in the US late last week. In addition to confident data on business activity, investors also paid attention to the dynamics of the secondary housing market. Thus, December sales in the US secondary housing market increased by 0.7% MoM after declining by 2.2% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected the negative dynamics to remain at the level of -1.4% m / m. Japanese statistics, in turn, somewhat disappointed investors with a drop in the manufacturing PMI from Jibun Bank in January from 50 to 49.7 points, which turned out to be worse than market forecasts at 50.5 points.


Gold prices maintain a slight downward trend during today’s Asian session, building on the corrective momentum that was formed at the end of last week. The instrument was pressured by rather strong positions in the US currency, which received support after the publication of upbeat macroeconomic statistics from the US on business activity and dynamics of sales in the secondary housing market. In addition, gold reacted negatively to the moderate rise in US Treasury yields. In turn, expectations of new support measures for the American economy, which were previously announced by Joe Biden, keep the asset from a more confident decline.

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Official exchange rate of the dollar and euro against the ruble as of January 26, 2021